15 million done!

By Simon Gentry

Over fifteen million people have been vaccinated in the UK, with the number continuing to rise fast, with the over 65s now being invited to come forward to get their jabs.  Whilst it’s not possible to say whether it’s the lockdown or the vaccine programme that’s causing it, the number of people being hospitalised is falling quickly, which should, in turn, result thankfully in a fall in the number of people dying.

This happy news is beginning to be seen in the polling numbers as the Conservatives extend their lead over Labour again and Boris Johnson’s personal stock rises.  There are, however, pitfalls ahead.

The nation’s attention is now focussing on next Monday and the Prime Minister’s planned announcement in which he will set out how the Government intends to unlock the country.  We know ‘for certain’ that schools, both primary and secondary, will be reopening on 8 March.  The exact order and timings of everything else is still a mystery, however. Downing Street is hinting that specific dates will be included in the plan, but that these will be dependent on the data and specific targets – presumably hospitalisations falling - being achieved.

There are however two political challenges.  The first is winning the argument that we will have to treat Covid like the flu, an inconvenience but something we have to live with.  There are many in the medical and scientific communities and many in Parliament, who would favour a ‘zero-Covid’ strategy, where the disease is completely eliminated, as in New Zealand.  That strategy would only work is the country remained locked-down for many more months.

The second political challenge is from the opposite side:  the Covid Recovery Group of around 65 Conservative MPs who, worried mainly about the economy, have argued against strict lockdowns and in favour of early re-opening of small shops and hospitality venues.  To this group the whole point of the vaccination programme is to get the nation back to work.  They argue that as the vast majority of deaths took place amongst the over 80s, now that they are vaccinated there is no reason to keep the country locked up.  The predictions last week that the UK could have a very fast economic rebound once the breaks are taken off, only fuelled their determination to push for a firm and specific plan.

Johnson will have to navigate between these two groups amidst a media primed and keen to jump on any potential errors or changes in thinking and a public weary of a long winter and the same walls, desperate to be set free.