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Letter from... Warsaw

07 July 2020

By Barbara Czerniawska, Martis Consulting (Part of SEC Newgate)

As of 6 July 2020, we have 36,155 confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in Poland (with 1,528 deaths and 24,238 recoveries). The number of new cases is still high: 250.

How badly has the coronavirus infected the Polish economy? According to a survey conducted among company managers, based on which the PMI index is calculated, industry is slowly returning to its pre-coronavirus state. 

This does not mean, however, that this key sector for the development of the economy has already entered the path of growth. The latest statistical data confirms that in the second quarter Polish GDP will be marked by a strong decline. In fact, it is forecast to shrink by nearly 10%. 

In Poland, we are now heading for the second round of the presidential election. The Government and government-friendly institutions are engaged in the incumbent president's fight for re-election. Therefore, you may hear some very brave, optimistic comments in the media space now. For instance, although we are yet to know the exact scale of the collapse in the Polish economy in the second quarter of this year, Paweł Borys, President of the state-owned Polish Development Fund (PFR), has just announced the end of the recession. Admittedly, he did point out that some industries will need more time to return to growth. I guess we'll have an interesting finish to the presidential campaign - with the coronavirus in the background!