COP’s-out

As the doors closed last weekend on COP30 and the last of more than 56,000 delegates departed, the inevitable question being asked was: what was achieved and will it make a difference to the fight to mitigate and reverse climate change? 

It is tempting to answer, “not much” and “no”. In some quarters, that conclusion is prompting commentators to question whether these vast, international UN climate change conventions are still fit for purpose. It’s not a new question, and every year the vast number of oil and gas industry lobbyists attending (allegedly 1,600 in 2025) is highlighted as part of the problem, when COP inevitably fails to reach a binding agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.

Yet this year a more fundamental question has hung over the COP30 proceedings: does the world still believe in climate science and the Paris Agreement, or do we believe it is ‘fake news’?  

Despite global temperature rises and examples of extreme weather breaking previous records, that question is now political and highly subjective. President Trump very publicly refused to attend and the US did not send a senior delegation. Something that inevitably has left a vacuum of leadership given that the world’s largest economy has historically played a key role in helping convene opinion and drive consensus through COP negotiations. 

Yet despite this notable absence, the US was one of only four countries that did not send a delegation to the convention. Even in an increasingly divided geopolitical world, that simple fact suggests some value still in the COP format.

The concluding ‘global mutirao’ text committed these signatory countries to continue a transition to a sustainable future following the Paris Agreement. On one level science won, but political progress on how to deliver against that goal was weak.

Looking back across the two-week negotiations the stand-out moments were:  

1. The fact that COP took place and drew delegations from 193 countries in a world that is rowing back on climate commitments was significant in itself. The final text and agreement offer consensus on ongoing progress, even if the ambition remains fairly flat. That provides a framework that will see economies continue to transition in line with the Paris Agreement goals. However, it also provides few clear markers for corporates on exactly what they should do. It’s more vibes than directional policy levers. 
    
2. Nature was a clear focus. The landmark Tropical Forests Forever Fund was launched and has raised $6.6 billion to reward and invest into countries that preserve their tropical forests, providing a new financial incentive to stop felling and promote biodiversity. We also saw initiatives such as the UK-led Global Clean Power Agreement launched in a bid to channel private finance into decarbonisation in the energy sector.
    
3. The question of fossil fuel phase-out continued to be a major point of contention in a world that is consuming more energy from both renewable and fossil fuel sources. This year, renewables produced around 40% of the world’s energy needs with China, the US, EU and India leading that race. The IEA expects over half the world’s energy to come from renewables by 2030. Yet the US and OPEC are also all increasing oil and gas production, and gas production and consumption in the EU continues to rise in a world that demands more energy as it electrifies and also embraces new technology like AI. Regardless of the lack of progress made in agreeing a political consensus to move away from fossil fuels, the markets (and falling prices of renewables) are powering that change forward, just not at the scale and speed demanded by the Paris Agreement. However, there remains a deep divide between those believing in a wide energy mix (that includes fossil fuels) and those seeking a pure renewables future. That debate will roll on and shows no sign of a breakthrough moment. 
    
4. Protests and raw anger from indigenous people were a landmark moment at COP30. The storming of the conference centre by indigenous tribes demanding protection for their forest lands created global headlines and reenergised debate around just transition and nature preservation. That debate will continue on to COP31, to be held in Turkey but co-hosted with Australia, which will host a pre-conference on a Pacific island to highlight the threat that people and nature face in that region from climate change and sea-level rises.
    
5. The role of business and private finance remains critical. While the politicisation of ESG and corporate nervousness about being perceived to be virtue signalling on climate and environmental issues was a clear takeout from COP30 (and reflected a growing trend this year), corporates remain focused on the strategic risks and opportunities that lie in doing business in a changing world. Adapting supply chains, the need to demonstrate impact and compliance with climate regulation, the need to de-risk operations in areas that could be impacted by rising water and extreme weather, and the need to position and fund corporate growth in a global economy that is transitioning to a more sustainable and climate resilient future remain critical.
    
6. COP30 also saw a sharp focus on misinformation and greenwash, with the signing of the Declaration on Information Integrity by 13 countries to promote evidence-based climate information and avoid greenwashing. 

COP30 faced an uphill struggle from the start as the first COP held after President Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement. This has energised scrutiny of ESG and given oxygen to those who do not believe that climate change is real, or a human-led phenomena. 

For corporations, the takeaway has to be that climate change remains a strategic risk that cannot be ignored. Yet taking a platform on sustainability requires care and nuance. Multiple stakeholders surround businesses and will have very different, in some cases wildly contradictory, expectations of corporate behaviour and leadership. 

The challenge for events like COP, and corporates that seek to engage at them, is they tend to expect a joined up, global and ambitious narrative and commitment that is often difficult for multinational corporations to deliver without alienating key stakeholders in different markets.

In that world, corporates are often opting to prioritise impact in areas where they know they have the greatest direct influence and are focusing on closed door collaboration rather than main-stage spotlighting.

That does lessen the momentum behind ambitious commitments and change and it also means that politicians will have to work harder if they are to get corporates into the tent as funders and champions of climate impact.