Local elections results

A year ago, Mike Amesbury won the Runcorn and Helsby seat with 52% of the vote at the General Election, and Keir Starmer returned 411 Labour MPs, close to a record high for the party.  Less than a year later, Labour lost the seat to Reform by six votes in last week’s by-election. 

It is easy to mark this down to local politics. The outgoing Labour MP was forced out after being convicted of punching a constituent, leaving a discontented local electorate and a government struggling in the polls.  

However, Reform’s victory in the by-election was not their only success. Victories in the newly created Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralties and gaining control of 10 of the 23 councils up for grabs, marks a significant moment in British politics.  

Reform have capitalised on major disillusionment in British society.  Polling from More in Common shows that 72% think that things in the UK are getting worse, with failure to tackle immigration (67%) and feeling let down by the main parties (35%) being cited as the main reasons for voters choosing the party.  

Both main parties have reasons for concern. For the Conservatives, the steady leeching of support to Reform is a deep worry. According to Professor Sir John Curtice, in wards where more than 65% voted Leave in 2016, Reform won on average 45% of the vote in last week’s elections. Where Reform won more than 45%, Conservative support dropped as much as 31 points, while the strength of Reform’s performance mattered little to how much Labour’s vote fell. 

For Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch, how to deal with Nigel Farage and Reform presents a stark challenge, something she recognised in her Telegraph article over the weekend where she apologised for the electoral ‘bloodbath’.  What to do next is the difficulty. Another change of leader would be the most radical, yet perhaps the most futile option, despite attempts from prominent figures like Robert Jenrick to position themselves as a leader-in-waiting. Polling clearly shows little appetite for a different face in charge. 

Instead, Badenoch recognises the scale of the challenge and the need to rebuild trust in the party, something echoed by former party Leader William Hague today in the Times who argues that the party must remain united, and take the time to develop a bigger vision, sense of purpose and offering to the public. Whether they have the time to do this is another matter. 

Next year’s elections in Wales and Scotland offers another electoral challenge to both main parties, and it is one that Reform is likely to do particularly well in.  Early polling suggests that Reform could become the leading party in Wales with around 27 seats, potentially ousting Labour who have been in power since 1999.  

New Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan has already begun to distance herself from the Westminster led party, opting for a more independent ‘red Welsh’ line and positioning the party to the left of Starmer to try and stave off a defeat at the ballot box next year. Behind all of this is the fact that Westminster has not helped Labour in Wales, from issues such as Port Talbot, PIP and on the Winter Fuel Allowance.   

It is this latter point that causes concern amongst many Labour MPs in Westminster. While the party did not suffer as many direct defeats to Reform at these local elections, Reform is now the main challenger in 73% of Labour council seats.  This has been fuelled by the discontent towards Labour at a national level due to a series of unpopular decisions on welfare, the NHS and winter fuel payments.  

Keir Starmer has written in the Times to say that he hears voters’ anger, focusing heavily on the security narrative. Yet much of the pain of the cuts is being felt now, while the upside of the structural reforms to the economy to get Britain growing again are yet to filter through. 

Reform has ideal conditions to grow – an unpopular government, a weak opposition, and a feeling that the main parties can’t fix the country. With control of councils and the mayoralties, Reform is morphing from a party of protest to a party of government, with the ability to direct significant powers at a local and regional level.   

The party has moved quickly to outline its priorities.  Nigel Farage has said that council employees who work from home or work on DEI or climate change initiatives should be “seeking alternative careers”, while Richard Tice has said that those who are looking to invest in solar farms or battery storage systems should “think again.”   The party has also ordered that only the Union Flag or the St George’s Flag are the only flags that will be permitted to be flown.  

As it begins to pull on the levers of power, Reform will begin to be judged on how it delivers against its promises, and its record in power. That is unlikely to affect the electoral dynamics in the short term, but their ability to be effective in power will determine their chances of breaking the electoral system by the next general election.