His Majesty’s official opposition – the Labour backbenches?

Back in June 2024, before the general election, Robert Shrimsley, chief political editor of the Financial Times, stated that “in a landslide Keir Starmer victory, the real opposition will be the Labour Party”.

Shrimsley’s words now seem all the more prescient in the face of last month’s welfare vote, which forced the government into an embarrassing U-turn in the face of pressure from backbenchers, and notably each of the select committee chairs. 

Labour backbenchers, spearheaded by the influential select committee chairs, are again directing government policy. 255 MPs, predominantly from the Labour Party, signed a cross-party letter for the government to recognise a Palestinian state. Sarah Champion MP, Chair of the International Development Select Committee, organised the letter. Emily Thornberry MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, a signatory of the letter, publicly shared her belief that “it’s a question of when” the Prime Minister would recognise a Palestinian state.  

Facing this pressure from his backbenchers and from within the Cabinet, the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, announced that the UK would commit to the two-state solution and recognise Palestinian statehood if Israel did not meet three core conditions. 

The government’s domestic agenda has once again been deprioritised, with the Prime Minister using time and political capital on resisting pressure from within his party. It appears to be a hybrid compromise which satisfies few from either side of the debate, with Champion saying she is “troubled our recognition appears conditional on Israel’s actions”,  but the PM’s announcement just about does enough to keep the pressure off from his emboldened MPs, for now at least.

Meanwhile, a group of 40 members of the House of Lords, led by leading lawyers, including seven KCs, have written to the Attorney General, Lord Hermer, arguing that recognition could break international law as it does not meet the criteria for recognition under the 1933 Montevideo Convention. Lawyers representing British Israeli hostages, Adam Wagner KC, and Adam Rose, have called the move a “bargaining chip by the UK”.

The actual official opposition - the Conservatives - have responded that this is just “designed to appease his backbenchers” and “will not secure lasting peace”. It is worth noting that within the Conservative Party itself, eight MPs wrote to the Prime Minister in June, calling for a recognition of Palestinian statehood. Internationally, despite France, Canada, and most recently Germany’s moves to recognise a Palestinian state, the US and Israel have issued strong criticisms, describing it as “rewarding Hamas.”

This is another successful backbench campaign which has forced the government to change policy. Labour might be considered to be a victim of its own success, with an overwhelming majority resulting in too many backbenchers with not enough ministerial positions to satisfy either the seasoned grandees or ambitious backbenchers. With 115 seats won by a margin of 5% or less in the general election, MPs are focused on their constituencies and are anxious to hold onto their seats.  

In the Holborn and St Pancras constituency, the primary challenger to the Prime Minister was an independent candidate, Andrew Feinstein, who criticised Starmer as “terrible on Gaza.” Starmer’s vote share decreased by over 17 per cent. In Ilford North, Wes Streeting won with a majority of just 528 votes against British Palestinian Activist Leanne Mohamad. The main casualty of the election was Jonathan Ashworth, the former MP for Leicester South, who lost out to Shockat Adam, who in his victory speech proclaimed, “this is for Gaza”. Labour now has to contend with the external pressure of the joint Corbyn-Sultana outfit currently named “Your Party”, of which Palestine will be a focal issue. In the last general election, 163 seats had a turnout of less than 55%, with 149 of those being won by Labour candidates. If Your Party can mobilise supporters, many Labour MPs, including those on the frontbench, will be at risk of losing their seats. And this is before even adding Reform to the equation, who now consistently lead Labour in the polls, and finished runners-up to them in many seats.

Labour was quick to change the narrative after the welfare vote, in announcing votes for 16-year-olds. Today it unveiled its Small Business Plan as part of its ongoing attempts to demonstrate domestic delivery. However, few will have noticed that today, with questions continuing to arise within the parliamentary Labour Party about geopolitics and internal party management.