The Challenge of Reform to the Status Quo in Scotland and Wales

With the autumn party conference season behind us, political attention now turns to the bumper crop of local elections in May 2026. However, the outcomes in councils across London and around England look set to be overshadowed by the results in Wales and Scotland. 

Political leaders are on the defensive. Yesterday, Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales hailed the £547m of Local Growth Fund money secured from the government to spend in Wales across the next three years, while today setting out an £800m increase in the proposed budget for the year ahead. Meanwhile, in Aberdeen, Scottish Minister John Swinney renewed the case for independence and claimed the political “race to the right” as the catalyst for Scottish independence, accusing “right wing” Prime Minister Starmer of “dressing up as Nigel Farage”.

The parliaments in Holyrood and the Senedd have enjoyed relative stability since their creation in 1999, with Labour controlling Wales (either as a single party or coalition lead) for the last 26 years and Scotland experiencing eight years of Labour rule followed by 18 years of SNP dominance. But if the current polling trend continues, all of this is set to change next May, largely due to the arrival of Reform UK and their growing vote share.

Reform has steadily increased its polling level in both countries, now standing at 29% in Wales and 20% in Scotland. Although the numbers are not high enough to achieve an overall majority, with six significant parties vying for seats and systems of proportional representation in place in both countries, these are still substantial poll numbers. 

For Labour in Scotland, their polling puts them in third place with just 17%, lower than their performance in 2021. Their only consolation is that they have known lower polling levels in the past. However, in Wales, their position is much starker, with a new low polling level of 14%, some 25% lower than the vote share they achieved at the last Senedd election.

The SNP face a significant (although not as big as Labour) fall-off in support, down to 34% from the 47.7% of the vote it secured in 2021. While the Conservative poll share is down to 11% and 10% in Wales and Scotland, respectively, they were never really in contention for government, and their fall in support only accounts for a part of the growth in Reform, which has gained directly at the expense of other parties that are traditionally more to the left. 

How real is the threat of Reform, though? If recent events are to be considered, then the risks of political change are very real – a string of defections to Reform in both countries have mirrored recent council by-elections, such as those in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan, where Reform has gained seats from Labour in the last month alone.

Next Thursday, 23rd October, will see a significant by-election for the Senedd constituency in Caerphilly. A seat that Labour has held since its creation, with 46% of the vote last time, should not be at risk. However, expectations are that Labour will finish third as Reform and Plaid Cymru battle for the top spot. Betting odds increasingly predict a win for Reform and what might be considered the most seismic election result in Wales for some time. 

Both countries seem set on an inevitable course for some form of coalition with no single party set to dominate the ranks of the 129 MSPs in Scotland or the 96 AMs in the newly enlarged Senedd. Old expectations about which parties might collaborate or avoid collaborating will be tested to new levels. Reform, as the new challenger, will face its own fundamental dilemma regarding whom it is prepared to work with to deliver that change.

It is clear that the elections next year are less about support for right and left politics and not really a divide over the issues of nationalism and independence. Instead, they are becoming a vote on supporting the existing parties and structures or simply voting against all we have known in the last 26 years to put something new in their place. While incumbents scrabble for commitments and policies, Nigel Farage has pitched his approach as being different to the status quo, claiming just two days ago that it was “too early” to answer questions about their policies in Wales, although they have bolstered their policy team with a distinct focus on planning manifestos for Wales and Scotland.

This could well be enough to secure Reform a seat at the government table, at least in Wales, where their momentum is much more tangible than in Scotland. But the elections themselves are only the first part of the test for Reform. Political pundits will be closely watching how those results are implemented, which parties are prepared to govern together, and crucially, how Reform performs in national government. 

The results will provide an invaluable insight into what the General Election might have in store for all of us.