Plaid Cymru – Welsh revolution or Welsh mirage?

Plaid Cymru, the Party of Wales, is having a moment. After 100 years of existence and only modest electoral success, elections in 2026 present the party with a real chance of leading the Welsh Government for the first time.

How is this possible for a party that so often flatters to deceive at the ballot box? 

What does Plaid Cymru mean?
Plaid rhymes with “slide” and means party. Cymru is pronounced “come-ree” and means Wales. Hence, “the Party of Wales” in English.

What does Plaid want?
Plaid Cymru, or Plaid as it’s frequently shortened to, is a centre-left/left party that has been gradually moving leftwards. Economically, the party advocates for decentralised socialism, while being pro-European, pro-immigration and taking a “progressive” line on social justice. 

The party is anti-war, officially anti-nuclear, opposed to the UK’s Trident nuclear missile system and opposed to increased defence spending.

But two issues stand far above all others for Plaid: the Welsh language and Welsh independence (in that order).

Is it the Welsh SNP?
Comparisons between Plaid and the SNP are inevitable, given that they’re both the main parties advocating for independence in their respective Celtic countries.

And for much of the two parties’ histories, they have generally mirrored each other. Plaid was formed in 1925 (nine years earlier than the SNP).  Plaid won its first MP in 1966. The SNP followed suit one year later (this was not their first MP after they surprisingly won a by-election in 1945). And in the first elections to the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd, in 1999 and 2003, they both achieved similar results in percentage terms.

But in 2007, the two parties’ histories wildly diverged. The SNP won the Scottish Parliament elections that year and went on to become a hegemonic party that, despite some significant recent setbacks, still dominates Scottish politics.

But in Wales, Plaid Cymru managed nothing close to these feats. It entered government for one term as Labour’s junior coalition partner in 2007. But lately, it has settled for continued influence through its pork barrel budget deals with the Labour Party. 

Always the bridesmaid
The outcome of Plaid’s continued electoral underperformance, compared to its peers, has given the impression of a party that is always the bridesmaid and never the bride. But current polling projects that Plaid is now in a tight race with Reform to win the 2026 Senedd elections. 

So what has changed?

The simple answer is that Labour was elected to run the UK Government in London, but its popularity has since plummeted.

The truth is that London politics has a straightforward impact on voting in Senedd elections.

Hence, Plaid had its best elections in 1999 and 2007, when Labour was in power in London. It then struggled during the 14 years of Conservative power.

This pattern appears to be playing out again, with recent polls showing Plaid being the biggest beneficiaries of voters currently leaving Labour.

Of course, the Labour Welsh Government in Cardiff doesn’t always help its cause due to its high-profile leadership and policy controversies.

But the more complex trends that could be helping Plaid may be emerging from broader shifts in Welsh society, with support for Welsh independence and the Welsh language on the rise.

Welsh Independence
An interesting emerging trend that could be helping Plaid is the historically high level of support for independence in Wales, according to polls.

Before the Brexit referendum in 2016, support for Welsh independence typically ran in single figures. But in recent years, that number has skyrocketed. 

The most recent poll suggested that, when those who don’t know are excluded, 41% of Welsh voters back independence.

That particular poll number appears high, but other credible independent polls have recorded support levels above 30% for several years now, with younger voters most keen.

And, in more visible evidence of its growing popularity, pro-independence marches now take place every year on the streets of Wales, attracting thousands of supporters.

Plaid Cymru/Plaid Cymraeg
There’s no doubt that Plaid’s uncompromising position on the Welsh language (or Cymraeg in Welsh) has alienated some voters over the years. Rather than seeing Plaid as the Party of Wales, many have seen it as the Party of Welsh Speakers. And results have typically backed that presumption, with Plaid winning most of its seats in areas with higher numbers of Welsh speakers.

But this issue does seem to be improving for Plaid. Wales has largely moved on from the toxic debates that used to take place about the use of Welsh in society. Recent polling shows overwhelming positivity and support for the language, with 63% of those who can’t speak Welsh backing efforts to expand its use, a fundamental aim of Plaid Cymru. It could be that, in the near future, Plaid’s support for the Welsh language becomes an asset in all corners of Wales.

Stability
Plaid itself is enjoying an unusual period of calm that has been rare in recent times.

After the 2016 Senedd election, one member of its group quit the party, while another was expelled, reducing the group's seats from 12 to 10. The leader, Leanne Wood, was later forced out of office, engendering inevitable infighting and animosity from the move.

And after the 2021 Senedd election, another member of the Group was expelled for bad behaviour, before a second leader was replaced. This time, Adam Price had to resign in 2023 after a report found misogyny, harassment and bullying in the party under his leadership. Price was replaced by incumbent leader Rhun ap Iorweth, the Member of the Senedd for Ynys Môn (Anglesey).  

As a former TV journalist, he performs well in live TV interviews, even producing some semi-viral moments on network television. He also has a vigorous presence in the Senedd chamber. These qualities have meant that the party is now united behind him.

The upshot is that, for a party that excels in public infighting and controversies, the rise of ap Iorwerth to power has led to a period of welcome stability for Plaid.

Are the stars aligning?
On the surface, after decades of losing to Labour, it looked like the stars were aligning for Plaid. There are unpopular Labour governments in London and Cardiff, and the Conservatives are faring even worse than Labour. The Lib Dems have shown little sign of recovery in Wales. The party is united behind a competent leader, and Welsh independence and the Welsh language are not the electoral burdens they once were.

These appear to be the perfect circumstances for Plaid Cymru to thrive. And yet, several nagging issues could stymie the party’s progress, most notably policy and financial matters, along with the significant threat of a new party in the Reform movement.

Policy issues
Plaid is a party that swims against the tide on policy. For decades, it called for independence when few people wanted it and campaigned for the Welsh language when it was a divisive issue. But it has recently adopted several policy positions and campaigns that are sure to become flashpoints during the election, mainly in matters of immigration and identity politics.

Firstly, Plaid’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has publicly stated that some areas of Wales need more immigration, rather than less, and disputed whether illegal immigration exists.

Secondly, Plaid defends the Labour Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary scheme, which has been primarily used to support Ukrainian refugees in Wales but has also been weaponised by the Conservatives and Reform.

Thirdly, during a Question Time debate featuring Plaid’s Llinos Medi, the MP suggested that the solution for the Afghan population struggling under Taliban rule could be unfettered immigration from Afghanistan to Wales/the UK.

Finally, the party continues to officially and publicly support gender self-ID.

Whatever one’s position on these policies, they have become divisive and contentious issues in British politics. As many other parties try to outdo themselves on stricter immigration policies, while also trying to bury the gender self-ID debate, Plaid is doing the opposite. Ler

Reform UK
The final major thorn in Plaid’s side is a new and significant threat from an upstart party.

At the Senedd election next year, Plaid will encourage the Welsh electorate to vote for a left-wing, progressive, pro-European, pro-immigration and proudly Welsh political party to lead the country towards greater autonomy. But it is becoming clear that a growing chunk of the Welsh electorate plans to vote for the exact opposite.

Is it a mirage?
Further nagging doubts remain over whether this really is Plaid’s moment to seize the reins of power in Wales.

The party just isn’t giving the impression of an insurgent movement in the ascendancy. For the party frequently leading in Senedd polls, you would expect to see Plaid winning seat after seat in by-elections. But after scores of local by-elections in the past 12 or so months, Plaid has failed to gain a single seat. 

Caerphilly
But we will not have to wait long to discover if Plaid’s new popularity is a mirage. On the 23rd of October, the party will hope to win the Caerphilly by-election for a Senedd seat. This is an election that will have significant ramifications for the future of Welsh democracy. If Labour fail to retain the seat, as expected, they will be too short of a majority to pass their Welsh budget.

But the by-election will also give concrete evidence of the real lay of the land in Wales. Caerphilly is an area in which Plaid has historically performed well. In 2021, the party finished a comfortable 2nd place, with 28% of the vote. Reform could manage just 2% while Labour won easily.

What a difference four years makes! Now, the Welsh electorate is polarised in a way it has never been since the first Senedd election in 1999. And so, on the 23rd of October, voters in Caerphilly are expected to pick between two parties with absolutely opposite visions for the future of Wales.

If Plaid is ever to show that it is a credible party that can win and lead the next Welsh Government, now must be the time.