Starmer survives for now but what’s next?

As pressure built towards what looked like an inevitable peak yesterday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer refused to roll over. He told colleagues he had “won every fight [he’s] ever been in” and was “not prepared to walk away” from his mandate. Karl Turner MP said his appearance before The Parliamentary Labour Party was met with applause from most members. But there’s widespread acceptance that this is less a fight won and more a question delayed.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s public call for the Prime Minister to resign may have created the impression that his position was unravelling, but rapid statements of support from the entire Cabinet halted any immediate challenge as the proverbial wagons circled the Prime Minister. The intervention showed how quickly pressure can escalate and how little room for error remains for a Prime Minister on the ropes.

The fallout from Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein continues to overwhelm the political agenda. Detectives are expected to interview Mandelson under caution shortly, after which key documents relating to his appointment will be released. Their contents are viewed as a significant moment for the government. This slow trickle of information only prolongs the story and risks further headaches down the line. 

Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, moved to get ahead of events by releasing his messages with Mandelson as part of the transparency process. This action has been seen as an attempt to bolster his position rather than elucidate clarity. Alongside this, Angela Rayner has offered to accelerate her HMRC investigation, a step that is widely regarded as clearing the decks in case of an imminent leadership race.

Inside Downing Street, the turnover of senior staff continues. After the departures of Morgan McSweeney, former Downing Street Chief of Staff, and Tim Allan, former Downing Street Director of Communications, the most senior civil servant in No. 10, Chris Wormald, is also understood to be negotiating his exit. Though Wormald’s departure has been touted for months, this is nevertheless the third major change in recent days and signals the extent of the clear out inside No. 10.

This revolving carousel of changes at the top of government has many in business worried, according to SEC Newgate UK Senior Counsel Dafydd Rees.

“We’ve heard a lot in recent days that Sir Keir Starmer needs a new direction. But just as important as political vision is delivery. Too many times, over the past 18 months I’ve heard businesses from construction to fintech complain of a lack of response and urgency from the Whitehall machine. Competence is as important as purpose for business leaders and there’s a widespread sense that the Government bureaucracy has been too timid and paralysed by events. “ 

Attention has now shifted to the coming months and three key scenarios:

• The first is that Starmer is forced out quickly, or resigns, if more damaging information emerges after the police interview or if confidence in his position further falls within the Cabinet. With the full release of the Mandelson files expected to take months, and the Prime Minister having received the backing of Cabinet, his position is secured for now.
• The second focuses on the Gorton and Denton by‑election on 26 February. A poor result would intensify pressure and could prompt renewed calls for change, especially after Sarwar’s intervention showed how easily internal discontent can move into public view.
• The third, and the one most commonly referenced, is that Starmer remains in place until the May local elections. Losses are widely anticipated. Allowing him to absorb those results and providing a natural point for a reset is increasingly seen as the least disruptive option. Many believe the party may simply let him carry the political cost before deciding its next steps.

As Chairman of SEC Newgate UK, Mark Glover summarised, “The consensus seems to be that Keir has survived for now, helped by the fact that no other candidate has come forward, with none wanting to own the expected results in the Gorton By-Election or the Scottish, Welsh and Local Elections in May.”

For now, Starmer maintains he will continue. Whether he wins this fight will depend on what emerges in the coming weeks and how the party responds to the pressure points ahead. With a key byelection this month and challenging elections in May, the question is not just whether he keeps going, but how long the Party will let him stay as PM.

The period of maximum anger towards Sir Keir may have passed, but maximum danger lies ahead.