State visit signals strategic shift in UK - France ties

Marking the first state visit by a European leader in nine years, French President Emmanuel Macron was welcomed to the UK this week with open arms and ceremonial splendour. The visit held the promise of closer cooperation on defence, progress on nuclear collaboration, and a new agreement on migration flows across the English Channel.  

As part of the wider defence pact that will be unveiled today, the entente industrielle will attempt to refresh the Lancaster House treaties signed in 2010; develop a replacement cruise missile for the Storm Shadow/SCALP; and advance anti-drone weapons. 

With both leaders facing significant domestic pressures, the stakes surrounding this visit are higher than initially anticipated. As Sir Keir Starmer is contending with the political fallout from last week’s welfare fiasco, President Macron, unable to seek re-election in 2027, is navigating a challenging political landscape marked by growing public dissatisfaction. These constraints lend added urgency — and opportunity — to the success of this diplomatic engagement.  

Having received the red-carpet treatment from the Palace and Downing Street, Macron addressed Westminster underlining his commitment to the “coalition of the willing”, a meeting of allied leaders to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the case of a ceasefire. Questions remain as to whether this coalition will bear fruit. Against the backdrop of debt and welfare costs, both France and the UK will struggle to even meet the NATO pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035.  

Today does, however, mark a measured success for Starmer as he unveils a “one-in, one-out returns deal” with Macron, which will allow for up to 50 small boat migrants a week to be sent back to France. Expecting to return about 800 migrants to France by the end of 2025, this trial is intended to mitigate the increasing anti-immigration sentiment that has contributed to domestic political challenges on both sides of the Channel. Though limited in scope, there is the promise of the pilot being scaled up once it shows “proof of concept”, though how that will be measured remains unclear. 

However, the key here is the scheme being “limited”. Looking to the numbers, around 843 migrants have been arriving every week since July 2024; the new plan would therefore only impact one in 17 arrivals. So, it remains unclear as to whether this plan will be scaled up and how much of the scale-up will depend on Starmer’s continued insistence rather than Macron’s proactivity. A similar scheme to the one currently used by the EU and Turkey, it does carry greater risk for Macron than it does for Starmer. The French President, facing right-wing critics at home, may be questioned on why he is taking back migrants rather than ensuring Britain address their “migration pull factors” first. 

The success of this scheme, and any others that follow, will play a role in Labour’s next election campaign. If Labour succeeds, and small boat crossings are curtailed significantly, which is currently quite a big if, recent polling has shown 40% of current Reform voters would likely switch to Labour. As has been mentioned before, to stem the growing influence of Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party, is to make a dent in the polling at the next election.  

Though it was a visit characterised by pomp and protocol, some meaningful political business was achieved. Long-term impact will still depend on the level of follow-through.  

For Starmer, this was an attempt to revitalise what was lost last week, demonstrating his ability to schmooze on the global stage. For Macron, the call for Europe to derisk may be less impactful as the UK continues to develop its relationship with Washington. Time will then tell if this partnership lays the groundwork for a new era for Anglo-French relations to, as Macron put it, “defend the international order”.