Voters in poll position to provide judgment on the wider political and economic landscape

As voters go to the polls in local council and combined authority areas in England today, I wonder how much key local issues are at the front of their minds when putting an ‘X’ in the box, or are wider national and global issues at play? 

In six mayoral authorities and 24 English council areas (and one more for a by-election) polling stations opened at 7am this morning. The warm and sunny forecast should boost the turnout a bit, but is it pot holes, bin collections, county hall leadership, children’s services and adult social care at the front of voters’ minds as they enter the booth?  Or does the performance of Keir Starmer’s government since July, the ever-rising cost of living or the global impact of the US economy have an impact on choice making? 

The interplay between the results of the general election and then subsequent local elections is a much-studied topic. The pattern over time suggests that overall the local election result basically catches up with whatever the outcome / trend was of the most recent general election. 

In local elections, gaining ground is key and standing still is risky as smaller parties poll more strongly, potentially splitting the votes of the major parties at this level. Party organisers know this, and activists are then dispatched to locations to campaign where majorities are tight, and where previous general election performance points to a high risk of losing a majority on the council or worse case-scenario, be obliterated completely.

Many academics have made a career out of this kind of research, and what they find is that it’s  hard to drill down and then generalise on the results of local elections due to the very nature and range of issues each specific area faces. An active local councillor may represent the people who voted them in really well, but wider issues and sentiment can still unseat them. For those elected members whose constituents only see them in the lead up to polling day are obviously, and rightly so, most at risk.

Whilst only a very lucky and small percentage of the population are partly insulated from the impact of world events, economic instability and political changes, the rest of us have to weather the storm whatever it brings. 

The influence of global issues on local issues are subtle, they have a drip-drip effect on the subconscious. For example, with reports today that the US economy has shrunk by 0.3%, this will affect global markets and in turn impact of the UK economy, manifesting itself as more cautious investment behaviour in these isles.

The economic uncertainty may influence voters' preferences for candidates who promise more economic stability and growth – hard to evidence at a very local level, but if a party in charge of a council of a mayor of a combined authority has a good track record, you can see how this could evidence in the election result.

Again with US trade policies, including tariffs these will impact UK industries. Those working in local businesses may support the candidates with the most pro-local procurement policies, who are actively looking at development of local, decentralised markets and investment initiatives, all of which have the potential to provide some protection and business certainty from global turmoil. 

It was Bill Clinton’s former campaign strategist, James Carville who in 1992 coined the phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid” referring to that fact that despite all the rhetoric, gesturing and ‘othering’ that goes on, it’s money in pockets that’s the primary concern of voters – I’ll be keeping an eye out for evidence of this when the results are declared.