Budget 2026: What’s in store for developers?

What does the 2026 Autumn Budget have in store for developers of housing, transport, energy, and infrastructure?

Some things we already know, some details we’re still waiting on, some pieces of fiscal policy might still be a surprise for Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey to share at the despatch box.

What’s clear is that the Government faces a difficult balancing act.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s update this week, the UK economy will expand by 1.3% in 2026, up from the 1% it predicted in July, before slowing to 1.2% in 2027 as higher energy prices and long-term interest rates weigh on consumption and investment.

But growth is not happening quickly enough to remove the pressure on the public finances.

UK government borrowing costs are the highest among G7 advanced economies and recently reached their highest level since 1998, while volatile energy prices are adding to inflation and spending pressures.

The extent of the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, or lack thereof, will be revealed when the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its updated forecasts alongside the Budget on 28 October.

For those involved in planning for housing, transport, energy and infrastructure, the key question is whether the Budget will provide greater certainty around delivery.

Unfortunately, there are challenges outside of the UK Government’s immediate control. Wars in Iran and Ukraine and their resulting impact on energy prices, and, in turn, the economy, are the most pressing issues.

We can expect updates on fiscal policies that have been heavily trailed and have the potential to provide a fillip for developers.

We will find out the finer detail of Your First Home, a new government-backed equity loan scheme that draws on the model used by Help to Buy. 

Under the proposed design, eligible first-time buyers purchasing a new-build home from a participating developer would be able to use a deposit of 2.5%, supported by a government-backed equity loan of 20% and an initial interest-free period.

Help to Buy supported 387,195 households into homeownership, including 328,346 first-time buyer households, and generated significant returns for the Exchequer. 

With international conflict continuing to fuel energy price inflation, people will also be looking to the chancellor to keep bills in check.

Energy affects everything from national security to consumer confidence. Measures announced since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister include a temporary removal of VAT from household electricity bills and plans for a Fuel Finder tool. 

It will also be interesting to see whether there are measures in the budget to solve long-term issues relating to energy security and net zero, or whether the Chancellor is constrained to managing short-term shocks.

On devolution, the Prime Minister has set out a policy and legislative agenda centred around ‘rewiring the state’ and the devolution of greater powers to local areas.

These changes will begin next spring, when mayors will start retaining a greater share of locally generated revenues, starting with business rates. Further details on this and on income tax retention will be set out in the budget.

Whatever happens with the publication of the Red Book, the economic case for investment remains compelling.

The UK needs new homes, upgraded transport networks, additional grid capacity, energy infrastructure and the digital foundations required to support AI and future industries.

Yet many of these sectors are being held back by the higher cost of capital, policy uncertainty and the time it takes to move projects from consent to construction.

Andy Burnham has promised good growth in every postcode and developers are ready to deliver it. They will be hoping that John Healey makes that possible for them.