Burnham's team takes shape

In the absence of substance, a summer of speculation over the shape of an Andy Burnham government has been raging. But how far away are we from having something more concrete? After all, we have had plenty on principles and process from the man himself – not only in recent weeks as the contest to replace Starmer fell to a predictable single figure, but also stretching back over the last 12 months and beyond.

The ‘Manchesterism’ moniker has been purposefully extended in Burnham’s monologues, most recently in a speech that spoke of stretching devolution as much to the “people of Dundee and Bangor” as within the confines of England and Wales. One is left to wonder whether this was just Burnham talking up the power of devolution or whether he’s serious about intervening in the UK’s constitutional framework to move powers away from devolved parliaments. 

This ‘what does it mean in practice’ question is something that is certainly following Labour’s heir to Blair around, as he tries to make the transition from desires to detail – without losing the vibes that are helping drive him to No. 10. “More public control” is certainly a theme in respect to key infrastructure and utilities, and it’s noteworthy that the accompanying tagline is over the “essentials of life”. Vibes still intact, but the options for “more” could encompass quite the range of options. 

And with primary legislation already in place over water through the Special Measures Act 2025, will a new government want to commit more parliamentary time? Sir Jon Cunliffe’s review of the water sector could certainly act as a helpful starting place for Burnhamism, which is still trying to find its feet on practical actions and concrete policy. 

As for how far and fast, and when, the new Prime Minister wants to apply his vibe check to the question of welfare reform, it’s worth noting this area led to a climb down from Starmer in the face of considerable opposition from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). That would be the same PLP that Burnham has made such a public focus of repairing relations with, going even so far as to call into question the system of the whips in Westminster. It may be that earlier discussion and signal sounding with his back benches could find a landing zone, but making this the first port of call could spell trouble. 

Easier perhaps to vibe out the issue of immigration? There is after all a pending immigration and asylum bill, and Burnham could perhaps opt for a less costly intervention simply to back the Home Secretary to the hilt in delivering her changes. It might irk a vocal minority of the PLP, but would it be enough to risk Labour’s fortunes in urban areas which are more than just threatening to go Green (and beyond)?

A far bigger question is whether Shabana Mahmood could emerge the compromise candidate for Chancellor, though her candidacy may not seem as such to some on the left of the party. The grudging respect her boldness on migration has earned her from figures on the right has been further accompanied by gracious words from Nigel Farage on the issue of security for Reform UK politicians.

She is reportedly keen not only to deliver but to be seen as the person delivering the immigration legislation, and it may be that a deal is struck with Burnham to fast track its conclusion for her to take over at No. 11. Brace for impact once the House of Lords gets its hands on the Bill, however. And while the forces opposed to Ed Miliband taking over the reins of the Treasury have grown in confidence, a thornier issue of where to put him – and what he might do if relegated to the back benches – has not gone away. Leaving him in post, for now, might be the safest option for the new Prime Minister.

In the meantime, the former Manchester mayor has been keeping busy with applying his principles to the process of governing. Much time and energy will continue to be spent dividing up No. 10, and potentially other departments, between north and south. Those with experience of “MoG” changes know that any machinery of government overhauls can overshadow the business of making policy.

Big decisions have been languishing since well before the May elections. Andy Burnham will fast find himself having to figure out if he can knit together policy, process and principles in time for Labour conference. Vibes might carry him through that coronation, but the business of governing won’t be able to wait much longer.