Caerphilly does it: The role of immigration in Welsh political discourse

In the lead-up to a by-election in Wales that has the potential to provoke repercussions that go beyond just Caerphilly, immigration has been playing an increasingly important role and dividing voter opinion. Despite Wales’ economic struggles, with latest figures showing that its GDP “is more than 25 per cent below the UK average”, tackling the devolved nation’s financial woes has not been at the forefront of campaigning from any side. So, what is it that residents of a region of South Wales defined by its industrial heritage care about more? The answer appears to be stopping the boats.

Two months after Labour MS Hefin David’s sudden death at only 47 years of age, residents of Caerphilly, located in the Senedd Region of South Wales East, go to the polls. The latest polling shows Reform UK with a narrow lead of 42%. Plaid Cymru stands in second place with 38% and, despite not having lost a general election since Welsh devolution began almost 30 years ago, Labour is now trailing far behind with just 12% of the vote. 

Results, which are due to be announced in the early hours of Friday morning, are highly anticipated by political observers across the UK, who suspect the results from this small community in South Wales will paint a fuller picture of shifting political attitudes nationwide. Voters, it seems, want change, and it is becoming increasingly clear that Labour, in their eyes, is failing to deliver it. 

The popularity of Reform UK in the Welsh context, however, is striking. While both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru have been discussing local public services, the issue that seems to be resonating the most with voters is immigration. Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell has pledged to end the country’s Nation of Sanctuary policy, which aims to support those who, “fleeing persecution and war, arrive [in Wales] to rebuild their lives”. In Powell’s opinion, the policy “has wasted £55m of taxpayers’ money”, while Plaid Cymru candidate Lindsay Whittle says he would be “proud” to continue to support it. As Liberal Democrat candidate Steve Aicheler argued after a recent BBC debate, immigration is not a problem in Caerphilly, but perception is. In response to being heckled with cries of “Stop the boats!” by supporters of Reform UK, Lindsay Whittle insisted that “the boats are not an issue here. There are no boats with immigrants coming up the River Taff, the River Rhymney, the River Tywi. Ninety-seven per cent of people in this constituency were born in Britain.” 

Why is it, then, that an issue like immigration, which isn’t even devolved to the Senedd, is dominating discourse in Caerphilly? The answer may lie less in the actual numbers and more in the sense of voter frustration about both the struggle of successive governments to address illegal migration and the perceived pressures of legal migration on public services over recent years.

Whatever the outcome in Caerphilly, one thing is clear: Welsh Labour feels to many voters as if it is “exhausted after more than two decades in power” (LabourList). Both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK seem to offer avenues for change, though they differ significantly on the path to achieving it.