Labour’s long game risks a brutal May

The sense of jubilation that came with Labour’s landslide victory in 2024 must already feel like a distant memory for the party’s leadership. With polling having fallen from around 34% at the time of the election to closer to 17% today, it is clear that 2025 did not unfold as planned.

What is striking is not the absence of activity, but the absence of impact. Despite a steady stream of policy delivery, very little appears to be cutting through. NHS waiting lists are falling, rail fares have been frozen, interest rates are easing, renters’ rights have been strengthened, the two-child benefit cap has been scrapped, and more children are being fed through expanded school meals and breakfast clubs. These are tangible changes that should, in theory, be felt in people’s day-to-day lives. Yet they have barely registered in the polls.

The same problem afflicts the Government’s flagship longer-term reforms. The Worker’s Rights Bill has the potential to materially improve the working lives of millions. The Planning and Infrastructure Act, the English Devolution Framework, reforms to bus services and rail governance all promise significant structural change. But their benefits are either indirect, to come, or complex – and therefore politically weightless in the short term. None offer the kind of immediate, visible payoff that shifts public opinion.

Major infrastructure commitments fall into the same trap. New nuclear capacity at Wylfa, progress at Sizewell C, a second runway at Gatwick, and the long-promised Northern Powerhouse Rail all speak to ambition and long-term state capacity. Yet for most voters, they remain abstract announcements rather than lived improvements. Once again, delivery exists, but recognition does not.

Against this backdrop, Keir Starmer’s recent suggestion that he would be open to closer ties with the Single Market is an interesting pivot. On the surface, the intervention was deliberately vague, offering little clarity on what closer alignment would entail – particularly given that meaningful access would almost certainly raise questions around freedom of movement, an issue the Government has so far treated as off-limits.

But in a political environment where even the strongest policy announcements fail to move the dial, vagueness itself may be becoming a strategy as we head into pivotal elections in May.

The difficulty is that elections, particularly local and devolved ones, are poor environments for such an approach. They reward visibility, clarity and local attribution. Councils are judged on outcomes people can see, and devolved administrations on whether power feels effectively exercised. Strategic ambiguity at the centre can quickly translate into uncertainty on the ground.

That tension will be exposed in May. In Wales, where Labour has governed continuously since devolution, becoming the third largest party will be symbolic. In Scotland, further

losses to Reform would risk undoing much of the progress Scottish Labour has made in rebuilding support in what was once a reliable heartland. And in England, with all-out and one-third elections across a number of Labour-held authorities, the party enters the contest focused less on gains than on how much ground can realistically be held.

Labour appears confident that its political fortunes will improve as rising incomes and easing interest rates begin to be felt more widely. That may yet prove correct. But what is increasingly clear is that this improvement is unlikely to arrive in time for May. The implicit calculation appears to be that long-term positioning matters more than short-term electoral discomfort.

That is a rational gamble – but a risky one. Poor results, especially in London, would not be easily dismissed as localised setbacks. Any visible erosion of Labour’s hold on its strongest heartland would quickly translate into questions about leadership and direction.

What seems inevitable is not a single outcome, but volatility. May is likely to mark a moment of political churn, with voters once again testing alternatives in search of the sense of change promised in 2024. For those operating in and around local government, planning and infrastructure, the period after the elections may matter as much as the results themselves.

With teams based across the UK and insights drawn from across the political spectrum, SEC Newgate is well placed to help clients understand the implications of May’s elections and navigate what comes next.