Runcorn rumble – final countdown

Given how little coverage it’s had compared to past by-elections, yesterday I decided to head to Runcorn and Helsby to get a sense of how the by-election is playing out. SPF plastered on, I made the 25-minute trip over the border to sunny Runcorn.

The race is between Labour and Reform and in the grand scheme of things, today’s result won’t change the national outlook much. Labour will still have its supermajority. Reform’s parliamentary clout will remain minimal. And the Tories? They’ll still be trying to rediscover some kind of electoral appeal – a strategy that, let’s face it, probably doesn’t involve Runcorn all that heavily.

If Labour do lose a 14,500+ majority here, we’ll hear the usual lines: “mid-term by-elections are always tough”, “the general election’s still a way off”, “we’ve had to take difficult decisions lately.” Still, the political shockwaves will travel far beyond this quiet corner of Cheshire.

Reform will treat a strong result here as a springboard, fuel for their claim to be the true opposition in working class areas, and perhaps even momentum to carry into next year’s Senedd election, especially if today’s local election results are also favourable. For Labour, a loss or even a narrow win in a seat like this will rattle MPs who’ve been sitting comfortably on five figure majorities.

Speaking to constituents yesterday, the overriding response was: “Oh yeah, that election.” Not exactly a sign of a community buzzing with political engagement. If national interest is low, it’s arguably even more muted on the ground. Even local party loyalists seem to be taking a back seat, with party staffers drafted in from across the country to do most of the heavy lifting.

A worry for Labour is that not a single person I spoke to openly said they were voting for them. A couple of locals even told me they would’ve voted for Mike Amesbury again – but since he’s not standing, they’re switching to Reform. When somebody convicted of assaulting a constituent still commands more personal loyalty than your current candidate, I’d suggest there is a problem.

Still, the party remains hopeful. They are expecting to win on a much smaller majority, but win nonetheless. The party’s call to arms continues to rally the troops, with more than 460 activists expected to descend on the constituency today. But one person who didn’t answer the call was the leader himself. Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t set foot in the constituency since the by-election was called.

The same can’t be said for Reform. Nigel Farage was back on the patch today, having made several visits during the campaign. In a campaign short on national attention, it’s no surprise that he’s the one managing to steal what little spotlight there is.

That said, over 160 Labour MPs have made the trip to Runcorn in the past few days, so it's hard to accuse the party of sitting on its hands. But it could just as easily be damage control. Maybe they’ve seen what’s coming on the doorstep. Because if Labour loses its 16th safest seat, quiet concern won’t stay quiet for long. If it can happen in Runcorn and Helsby, it can happen anywhere.