Starmer’s Brexit bet… that no-one really cares

“Britain is back on the world stage”, the Prime Minister declared yesterday, championing his new deal with the EU. 

That deal will reduce friction at the border for both British burgers and British holidaymakers descending on the continent, with an agreement on plant and animal rules and on the potential use of e-gates at EU airports. 

It will also open the door to a new youth mobility scheme and enable UK access to new EU defence procurement programmes. A last-minute demand from the EU to roll over the current fishing access agreements for 12 years – much longer than expected - was the painful political price that Starmer proved willing to pay to avoid his big moment being scuppered. 

It is also the main line of attack from Reform UK, with Nigel Farage declaring that “Labour have well and truly sold out our fishing industry”. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch echoed that attack, arguing that "when Labour negotiates Britain loses" and criticising the commitments made by the government on aligning with EU rules. 

Those concessions on fishing and European Court of Justice jurisdiction are real, as noted by SEC Newgate EU’s Alessandro Pizzi in his take on the deal from a Brussels perspective below this piece.  

But the Prime Minister is betting that the public has little desire to tune back into the Brexit wars of the past, when they were forced to follow the daily melodrama of a split Parliament tearing itself apart over the minutia of customs models and adjudication mechanisms.  

He is probably right to hope that only those whose minds are already made up will engage in the substance of the technical details and their constitutional implications. His framing of the deal as part of a wider re-emergence of Britain – with trade deals with the US and India also wrapped up in recent weeks – and of the deal having the support of business (minus the fishing industry) supports his central messaging on growth.  

The broader reception was positive too, with The Good Growth Foundation think-tank – which launched its report on UK attitudes to EU relations here at SEC Newgate UK earlier this month – welcoming all of its key recommendations being taken up in the final deal. 

As former Chancellor George Osborne also anticipated ahead of the deal, it sets a trap for the Conservatives, who as a result of committing to reverse the deal will go into the next election arguing against the business community which, having got the changes they broadly wanted will have embedded them into their operations and will be loathe to change them yet again.  

There are risks for Labour too, though, in their concessions being picked over and used as part of a broader attack on where their priorities lie. Just at the FTA with India – with its exemptions from National Insurance for Indian workers – was unfortunately announced just as the controversial rises for British employers began to bite, the promise of an unspecified number of young workers from the EU taking advantage of the new youth mobility scheme comes hot on the heels of the immigration white paper, with its commitments to lower immigration. Whatever the details or distinctions on both these, Labour will be wary about a picture being painted, particularly by Reform. 

Indeed, perhaps the most telling statement from the Prime Minister came not from his joint press conference with his EU counterparts, but from his remarks to his own MPs who he addressed hours later.  

Reform, he said, are now Labour’s “main rivals for power”. The strong attack lines he deployed on Farage himself was particularly telling. Farage, Stamer said, is “a state-slashing, NHS-privatizing, Putin apologist. Without a single patriotic bone in his body.” Those words will have been both highly tested in focus groups and said in the certain knowledge that they would be immediately repeated to journalists, giving us a clear sense of the shape of thing to come in the critical fault line between the two parties. 

A YouGov poll this morning showing Reform at 29% ahead of Labour on 22% and the Conservatives pushed to fourth place behind the Lib Dems on just 16% suggests that will indeed be the battle to watch. 

The view from Bussels: 

Alessandro Pizzi, SEC Newgate EU 

From Brussels’ perspective, the new deal with Britain represents, first and foremost, a political victory in its ongoing effort to find new partners following Trump’s re-election. Since Trump announced tariffs on the EU and declared his hostility toward the Old Continent, the Commission has prioritized demonstrating, to the world and to Washington in particular, that the EU can move forward without its closest traditional ally. In this light, the renewed agreement with Britain is primarily seen in Brussels as a political and communicative success. 

That said, the deal also carries real substance, as its contents are concrete and pressing in the EU’s eyes. As President von der Leyen emphasized, renewed UK-EU cooperation on defence and security is essential in an increasingly unstable and insecure world, especially as the U.S.’s inward turn becomes more evident. She also highlighted that upcoming discussions will cover energy, agrifood regulations, climate, migration, and people mobility: all high priorities on the EU’s agenda, which has struggled to gain traction with a hostile White House but has found in Britain a valuable partner. 

Though not openly celebrated by policymakers, perhaps for diplomatic reasons, Brussels acknowledges two notable achievements in the agreement vis-a-vis the UK. First, EU fleets will retain favourable fishing rights in British waters until 2038. Second, disputes over sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations will now fall under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, an important legal safeguard for the Union. 

In conclusion, the deal is regarded by Brussels not just as a diplomatic gesture but as a meaningful step forward. It is seen as both a political success and part of a broader diversification strategy in the EU’s efforts to strengthen alliances in the second Trump era. While part of the EU bubble public opinion rejoices in seeing the UK coming back to ask for an increased partnership after exiting the Union, the deal is mostly seen as a joint effort of two like-minded partners to build a more secure world for all Europeans.