Conservative conference: Manchester shrugged “Where are all the protestors?”

That was the question from one delegate here at Conservative Party Conference yesterday. 

Over the last fifteen years making your way into the main centre behind the steel security perimeter has meant running a gauntlet. Not now. Out of government and – according to current polls – out of the running, protesters have decided to save themselves the train fare to Manchester and stay home.

Things are different inside the conference as well as outside. Speaking on the Today Programme, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tried to make a virtue of this. “We used to be teaming with corporate lobbyists,” she said. “Now we’re teaming with party members.”

Badenoch argued this is a natural consequence of being in opposition, with the “people who turn up wanting government favours” having logically decided (like the protesters) that their time was better spent down the road in Liverpool with Labour last week. 

As Oscar Wilde said, though: “There is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.” As the corporate lobbyists who opted for Reform UK conference in Birmingham last month would attest.

Despite that, outright talk of a leadership challenge to Badenoch is far less common than were questions over Keir Starmer’s future among Labour members. YouGov polling yesterday showed that 50% of Conservative members think she should not lead the party into the next election. But it is not clear either that their minds are irrevocably made up or that they think now is the time to act.

Party members in Manchester are pretty stoical as they have dug in for their first full year in opposition since the late 2000s. Indeed, the demographic skews younger than in previous years and many are attending their first conference despite having been members for many years.

The party ran a quieter but well-organised business day that made those attending feel like they were being treated seriously by shadow ministers and Conservative HQ. Paired with this is the repositioning of the Conservatives as fiscally responsible and pro-enterprise – see Badenoch’s recent speech on welfare reform and wealth creation through incentivising risk. There is also a sense that the attack machine within HQ is humming better, pointing to the campaign that eventually led to Angela Rayner’s resignation last month.

This reflects the overall positioning Badenoch is seeking for the Conservatives: tougher than Labour and more competent than Reform UK. Unlike Reform, she says, “we have thought this through”, seeking a distinction with the quickfire yet sometimes half-formed policy announcements that Farage and co set the political agenda with over the summer.

When it comes to the delayed alignment with Farage’s party on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and rolling back net zero commitments, Badenoch insists that voters will – in the end - come to value a party with plans, not simply announcements. 

This is a deliberate and strategic choice – to be the Badenoch tortoise to the Farage hare - but not one that is showing results now, or which is likely to in the short to medium term, either. Fundamentally, memories of the end of the Conservatives time in office are still too fresh for the public to take them seriously on the two issues they are putting at the centre of their conference slogan – the economy and borders – given their recent record on both.

And this is ultimately what it comes down to for Conservative members. 

Do they hold their nerve, hope that Reform and Farage somehow blow up and that space will re-emerge for them in the centre right against an unpopular Labour government? Or do they pull the emergency cord marked ‘Reform/Conservative pact’, which the same YouGov poll shows a 2:1 margin would be in favour of. And what happens if (when) that emergency cord comes away in their hands as Reform simply say no to any pre-election deal?

And even if they do build a fiscally responsible, intellectually rigorous Conservative policy platform, will it get any cut through with the public? Or will the public continue to ignore them, while still blaming them for creating the problems that the Conservatives are now insisting only they can solve?

For now – while that question remains hanging over Manchester – the party seems content to have put on a steady-as-she-goes get-together that keeps the show on the road.

Just not one worth protesting about.