Conservatives abandon net zero and PM U-turns over COP30

Over the past month, Westminster’s climate conversation has quietly but significantly realigned. The bipartisan stability that once underpinned UK net zero policy is fracturing, replaced by a sharper debate over how much, how fast, and for whom. As the UK delegation (which now includes the PM) gears up for COP30, domestic turbulence presents both risks and opportunities. 

At the centre of the shift is Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch’s increasingly direct challenge to the climate status quo. Her call to repeal the Climate Change Act and abandon the 2050 net zero target goes further than any recent Conservative statements, signalling a break from the framework that has shaped British climate policy for nearly two decades. Her framing is familiar: climate ambition must be affordable and pragmatic, or it risks becoming a burden on households and industry.

Her remarks have provoked a strong reaction. Ex-Prime Ministers and senior Conservatives warn against forsaking the “green growth opportunity”. But the divergence also underscores growing political realism: as inflation, energy costs and investment pressures mount, MPs are recalibrating their tone to appeal to a public under strain. The question now is less about whether we can decarbonise, and more about at what cost, over what timeline.

Even as political lines shift, institutional bodies like the Climate Change Committee (CCC) continue to anchor the discourse. Their latest report and the government’s recently released Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan remind everyone that the legal architecture still holds weight - at least for now. The CCC welcomed the plan as “the most comprehensive to date”, though it reiterated that ambition alone is meaningless without delivery. In a moment of flux, that dual message between aspiration and realism resonates with a public weary of missed targets.

One flashpoint where the tension is palpable is wind energy. The government has set a £1.08 billion annual budget for the next Contracts for Difference (CfD) round, allocating £900 million to fixed offshore wind and £180 million to floating projects. Developers welcomed the continuation of support but warned that the scale is too modest to unlock the whole pipeline. RenewableUK emphasises that consistency, rather than sudden cuts, drives investor confidence. UCL and others point out that UK wind deployment has already delivered substantial savings by displacing expensive gas imports, reinforcing the case that clean energy can carry both environmental and economic returns even in uncertain times.

Yet the upcoming Budget could severely test that proposition. The Chancellor will need to reassure markets of fiscal prudence while signalling that the green industrial strategy remains intact. Although ministers regularly highlight that net zero sectors are growing faster than the rest of the economy, only a tiny fraction of recent R&D commitments is earmarked for the energy transition. ESG investors will be watching for hints on whether policy stability remains a priority.

Meanwhile, last week’s Heathrow announcement added a new layer of complexity. The government launched a review of the airports national policy statement (ANPS) to fast-track Heathrow’s third runway, promising climate, noise, air quality, and economic-growth tests to ensure alignment with net zero goals. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed work has begun and intends to publish a draft ANPS by summer 2026. Critics warn that expansion could jeopardise emission targets and argue that the climate safeguards are too weak. Local authorities like Hillingdon reaffirmed opposition. The government, however, insists the scheme must meet environmental thresholds and has invited CCC input. 

Opposition from the Liberal Democrats adds another dimension to the pressures. Ed Davey has directly challenged Badenoch’s narrative, accusing her of peddling myths that would hurt households and industry alike. The Lib Dem critique goes deeper: they reject scrapping the Climate Change Act and argue that public investment in renewables offers a pathway to lower bills and growth. Their refusal to follow the Conservative pivot helps keep space in the political spectrum for climate-serious alternatives.

Taken together, these developments suggest the UK is not unravelling its climate ambition, but recalibrating it. What was once consensus is now contested terrain, and that contest may matter as much as the targets themselves. Ahead of COP30, the test will be whether Britain can reconcile its shifting domestic narrative with its global climate posture. The stakes remain high not only for credibility but also for the investment and momentum that will carry the transition forward.