Eye on the Economy: Why America's economic mood matters globally

How do the American public view the economy, their own financial situation and their place in the world, one year after Donald Trump’s election to become the 47th President of the USA? 

While Trump’s political impact and agenda are having a significant impact globally, with tariffs, a re-set on ESG, Gaza, Ukraine and relations with Russia and China all driving a period of strategic re-set globally, is this translating into positive feelings and support among US voters? 

SEC Newgate’s USA business, Global Strategy Group, has, for the past five years, conducted its Eye on the Economy survey, tracking how Americans view the state of the US economy and their own personal financial situation. The latest poll has just been released and highlights a country that is split along political lines, with many sceptical of Trump’s tariffs and trade policies, and generational and gender divides shaping public attitudes.

While the findings speak directly to US politics, they also hold lessons for global leaders navigating economic headwinds and responding to the rise of populist movements which are re-shaping political dialogue and policy choices.

Our GSG colleagues Matt Canter, Partner and Katie Drapcho, Vice President, report: 

A deep political divide
Economic attitudes in the US are now inseparable from political identity. Overall, by a two-to-one margin, Americans say the economy has declined this year. Yet Trump’s base remains an outlier in seeing signs of progress. MAGA Republicans, Republicans who self-identify as supporters of the MAGA movement, stand out as the group that believes the economy has improved in the last six months, sharply differing from Democrats, independents, and non-MAGA Republicans. 
 

What’s more, the gulf between MAGA Republicans and all other voters in the electorate has widened since the ’24 election, with 80% of MAGA Republicans now saying the economy is headed in the right direction, compared to just 18% of all other voters. 

Tariffs at the centre of debate
Tariffs, alongside rising prices, are now the primary reasons Americans say the economy is headed in the wrong direction. Two-thirds of voters (66%) believe tariffs raise consumer costs and weaken US businesses, while just 34% buy the argument that tariffs create jobs and strengthen the economy. 

In an open-ended question, voters identify tariffs as an economic pain point more frequently than in earlier surveys, reflecting their growing salience in voters’ day-to-day cost concerns.
 

The pressure on young voters
Younger Americans face unique and structural challenges: 85% believe things are financially harder for younger people starting off today than for previous generations. Asked to identify which economic factors best explain why young people are struggling in today’s economy, voters under 35 points to inflation, stagnant wages, personal debt, and growing income inequality. 

Among voters under 35, 61% cite inflation as a top concern, but they are nearly twice as likely as voters overall to identify unemployment as a key issue (30% versus 18%), in line with employment data that finds unemployment is highest among the youngest workers in the labour market.

A gendered economic experience
Women consistently express more pessimism than men, regardless of who they voted for in the 2024 election. For example, 85% of Harris-voting women say the economy is poor, compared to 72% of Harris-voting men. Even among Trump voters, women are markedly less optimistic, with 45% of women who voted for Trump rating the economy as poor, compared to 30% of male Trump voters. 

Women across both partisan camps prioritise health care costs and wages more strongly than men, highlighting persistent gender-based economic concerns.

Why global leaders should pay attention
These findings matter far beyond America. US trade policy reverberates globally, and US voters’ rejection of tariffs suggests limits on how sustainable aggressive trade measures may be. For European and global leaders, understanding these dynamics is essential for anticipating US economic moves that could affect supply chains, markets, and alliances.