Green & Reform: competing for the same protest space?

Last week’s by-election result in Kent, in which the Greens took a seat from Reform on the county council, left most people scratching their heads. It was always going to be tricky for Reform to hold on after the serving councillor (initially Reform but then expelled) was jailed for 12 months for coercive behaviour. But a swing to the Greens, whose candidate was an offshore wind farmer, felt like a stretch.   

If anything, it is an early signal of just how volatile the battle for the protest vote has become ahead of the 7th of May. Voters who only recently turned to Reform as an anti-establishment party now appear willing to shift again, and this time toward the Greens. That’s quite a leap and, while good news for both parties’ election hopes next month, does bring with it extra scrutiny. Both parties, despite their momentum, are now facing similar problems: candidate controversies, questions over credibility and increasing scrutiny from their opponents. 

The Kent by-election result highlights a shift in protest voting, demonstrating just how fragmented this trend has become. Reform swept to power at Kent County Council last year, winning 57 of the 81 seats, in what was widely seen as a protest vote. 12 months later and Reform now has 47 councillors and has been widely derided for its flailing efforts to cut costs and run services. So was last week’s by-election a further protest, this time against Reform itself? A strong Green candidate, with perceived credibility and a local connection (former mayor of Margate and current Thanet councillor) seems likely to have won on a wave of dissatisfaction, rather than policy.   

While there’s little sign of widespread switching between Green and Reform supporters, there is a small group open to both, for whom outsider status is more important than any manifesto pledge. In our advice to clients, we often note that candidate visibility and credibility can outweigh policy detail, and a positive, community-focused approach can succeed among disaffected voters. 

And on the topic of manifesto pledges, the leaflet from the Green Party that came through my mailbox last week had as its key themes: Gaza, the living wage and international trade agreements. Not what I would expect my local councillor to be focused on but there’s a broader strategic point here that is shared by both the Greens and Reform: emphasise the issues that resonate beyond the immediate remit of local government, and then position the local elections as part of a wider political journey leading to 2029. 

Success at council level becomes a platform from which to argue for greater influence nationally. Local contests are then not just about control of services, but about building visibility and momentum for a larger political project.  

That then presents its own challenges. 

For the Greens, last week should have been a period of consolidation but was complicated by candidate controversies of its own. Ongoing reports of problematic social media posts from Green candidates standing in May’s elections were seized on by Anna Turley, Labour Party Chair, who noted that electing Green candidates could open the door to ‘crackpot conspiracy theorists’. Zack Polanski was forced to admit that he would ‘not be surprised if we have the odd candidate where we have to distance from them’.  

Reform, meanwhile, has faced an even broader set of issues. Questions over candidate vetting have been persistent, alongside criticism of its campaign infrastructure, including so-called paper candidates, as reported in this newsletter last week. These cut directly against its attempt to reposition itself as a credible governing force rather than a purely insurgent movement. 

What is striking is how similar the vulnerabilities are. Both parties are expanding rapidly, fielding large numbers of candidates, and struggling to maintain quality control. Both rely on outsider appeal yet are now being tested on competence and professionalism. 

Will these controversies tarnish their appeal? Those of us in the Westminster bubble tend to get very excited by the smallest infraction but, as noted above, protest voters often care less about policy and more about, well, just protesting.  

Both the Greens and Reform are finding that breaking through is only the first challenge. Sustaining support, under the scrutiny that comes with success, is likely to prove harder.