“It’s immigration, stupid.” Starmer’s pivot risks splitting Labour’s coalition

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned that the UK risks becoming “an island of strangers.” It’s a remarkably effective line — capturing a complex sentiment that many Brits now share and which is increasingly shaping how they vote.

Voters are demanding immigration reform. That much is clear. While much has already been written about the rise of Reform UK, it bears repeating that their continued traction reflects a broader shift in the national mood. What was once the preserve of the political fringe has now entered the mainstream.

The forthcoming white paper is expected to include proposals aimed at limiting the ability of failed asylum seekers and foreign nationals with criminal convictions to use human rights legislation to avoid deportation. Specifically, ministers plan to amend the law to constrain judicial interpretation of Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights - the clause protecting private and family life, which is commonly invoked in such cases.

Additionally, the government intends to narrow the legal definition of “family ties,” targeting last-minute claims from individuals who assert parental relationships they have long neglected, in an effort to reduce deportation delays.

Of course, this marks a sharp pivot from where Keir Starmer once stood. In 2020, he said:

“We welcome migrants. We don’t scapegoat them. Low wages, poor housing, poor public services are not the fault of migrants and people who’ve come here: they’re political failure. Political failure. So we have to make the case for the benefits of migration, the benefits of free movement.”

That sentiment now stands in contrast with the current government line. The U-turn is transparent — a calculated move to neutralise Reform UK’s influence. But it risks repeating a strategic error the Conservatives made during the 2019–2024 Parliament: building a coalition too ideologically broad to hold.

The Conservatives tried to unite affluent Surrey voters with working-class Teessiders. They branded themselves as fiscally conservative and advocates of large-scale public investment, Brexiteers and reluctant Remainers. The result? Fragmentation. Support bled to the Liberal Democrats on one side and Reform UK on the other.

Labour should learn from this. And already, the cracks are showing. Labour MP Nadia Whittome said:

“The step-up in anti-migrant rhetoric from the government is shameful and dangerous. Migrants are our neighbours, friends and family. To suggest that Britain risks becoming ‘an island of strangers’ because of immigration mimics the scaremongering of the far right.”

Meanwhile, a credible threat is emerging from the left. The Green Party made significant, if underreported, gains in the recent local elections, posing a growing concern for Labour MPs in progressive-leaning constituencies. The incumbency challenges that face these MPs are at odds with those of the so-called ‘Red Wall Caucus’. It feels increasingly like history is repeating itself.

In my experience, 90% of a backbench MP’s time is spent thinking about one thing: staying in the job. Every action, every decision, is ultimately weighed against its impact on re-election. That’s also why the Prime Minister is making this announcement. But this white paper will alarm a large number of Labour MPs. Many will see it not just as morally uncomfortable, but politically damaging — a move that could seriously undermine their chances of holding onto their seats.

The long-term risk of Labour’s strategy is clear: a party pulled from pillar to post in pursuit of votes may find it no longer stands for anything at all. It’s a dilemma the Conservatives now face — a party in search of an identity after years of political shape-shifting.

And this reflects a deeper truth: it is becoming increasingly difficult for parties to hold broad electoral coalitions. The era of the stable two-party system is fading. Voters are more fragmented, more issue-focused, and less tribally loyal than ever before. 

Those who try to be everything to everyone often end up as nothing to anyone.