Keir Starmer’s premiership is in trouble, and everyone knows it

It’s been a bruising week in Westminster and no one’s feeling it more than Keir Starmer, who is facing the kind of rolling crisis that corrodes authority. The headlines are bad, the mood in the Labour Party is worse, and the sense that Starmer is not quite up to the job is no longer confined to whispered conversations in Strangers’ Bar. 

Let’s start with the latest scandal that’s dominated the news cycle: Paul Ovenden, one of Starmer’s closest aides, resigned after leaked messages revealed sexually explicit remarks about Diane Abbott. The fallout has been swift and ugly. Abbott herself has called for a full investigation, and Labour MPs are privately furious - not just at the content of the messages, but at what they reveal about the culture inside No. 10. The fact that this broke just as Donald Trump was poised to arrive in London for a state visit only added to the sense of chaos. Instead of projecting statesmanship, Starmer looked rattled and reactive. 

This follows hot on the heels of the resignation of Angela Rayner from the Cabinet and her role as deputy leader, as well as the more ignominious sacking of Peter Mandelson from his role as US Ambassador. Rayner’s exit, while painful for many in the party, is largely seen as the result of an honest mistake. Her allies still point to her authenticity and lament the brutal media pressure she faced, and many still hope to see her back in the Cabinet in a year or so.  

Mandelson’s departure, however, is a different beast entirely. His sacking as US Ambassador - on the eve of Trump’s state visit - followed the release of emails showing him defending Jeffrey Epstein, including messages urging the disgraced financier to “fight for early release”. Today’s emergency debate in Parliament was scathing. Labour’s own Emily Thornberry, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, lambasted the vetting process that cleared Mandelson, saying it ignored “the glaring red flag” of his relationship with Epstein. No. 10 was attacked from all sides, and the sense that Starmer’s judgment is fundamentally flawed is now widespread. 

But the real problem is not the scandals, but the vacuum at the centre of government. Increasingly, Labour MPs and members are asking the same question: where is the leadership? Starmer’s style - cautious, lawyerly, deliberate - worked when the goal was to detoxify the Labour brand. But now, with power comes expectation. Increasingly, MPs and Labour members find themselves considering whether Starmer’s inability to rise to the moment is becoming a liability. 

There’s an emerging sense that he hasn’t grown into the role of Prime Minister. He’s not a natural communicator, he struggles to connect emotionally, and he lacks the political instinct that often defines successful leaders. What was forgivable in opposition, faced with a long-serving and unpopular Conservative administration, is not enough to carry a party through five years in government. 

Enter Reform UK, with a charismatic leader and a clear message, which together form both an electoral and an existential threat to Labour. Reform is positioning itself as the voice of the disillusioned, and Labour’s failure to offer a compelling alternative is giving them oxygen. 

All of this is fuelling speculation about Starmer’s future. With Rayner, long seen as the party membership’s favoured successor to Starmer, damaged by recent events, Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is watching closely. He’s long been ambitious to lead Labour, and as an experienced, media-savvy politician rooted in the party’s northern heartlands, he knows that the current crisis could represent his best opportunity. His recent interventions on national issues haven’t gone unnoticed, and his backing of Lucy Powell’s deputy leadership bid is being read by many as a strategic move. 

Powell’s campaign is quietly becoming a proxy war. If she performs well, it will be seen as a sign that the party is open to a Burnham-style reset. Her pitch - focused on unity, reform, and reconnecting with the grassroots - aligns closely with Burnham’s own brand. And while he’s not making any overt moves (yet), the message is clear: a potential alternative is being readied. 

For now, Starmer remains in post, but the mood is shifting. The fact that an MP like Rosena Allin-Khan is willing to go on TV and agree that the Prime Minister effectively has until May to turn things around should be shocking, but it barely generated a ripple in the public consciousness.  

The Prime Minister needs a reset. No.10 clearly knows this - indeed, ‘phase two’ of the government’s agenda was supposed to kick off precisely that, before the government found itself mired in a cascade of scandals. The government badly needs to take control of the narrative and decide what it is going to do to win back the trust of an electorate that voted it in by a landslide fifteen months ago, and is now rapidly losing faith. And, on top of all that, Starmer needs to convince his party that he is still the right man for the job.