Local elections polling day 2025

The main parties go into this local election cycle in various states of ponderance. Labour, in power with a massive majority seem to have accelerated to mid-term blues very quickly and is struggling to get back on the front foot. The Conservatives haven’t begun to recover yet and face significant challenge even to remain in the top two on national polling. Reform needs to translate strong polling into performance and break the two-party spell. The Liberal Democrats look to continue replacing the Conservative Party in its southern heartlands (hence they are no longer in favour of higher income tax). The Green Party want to solidify its role as the alternative to the left of Labour, especially now Labour is in government.  

This year the majority of seats up for election are for county councils, and the larger unitaries are mainly rural. On the whole it is Conservative territory. Labour is barely competitive across much of the counties. That in itself helps the government’s messaging as bad results come through – ‘these aren’t our areas anyway; we never win here’. Expect a lot of that. Take the hit and move on.  

Counties, of course, don’t deal with planning matters. So, what is in it for planning watchers like us? There are nine unitaries up for election, the most interesting being North Northamptonshire (Conservative control) and Doncaster (Labour control). Then of course the combined authority mayors, who have that strategic planning oversight. County results may also more closely reflect the outlook for the unitaries that will be created via Local Government Reform.  

Voter dissatisfaction with the usual parties of government is making this round particularly hard to predict. What we do know is that Labour HQ is briefing for losses. A few things we’ve been picking up: 

• The switch to First Past the Post voting in the Mayoral will make Labour victories much less likely. Expect losses in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough (to Conservatives) and the West of England (a 5-way battle, as Matthew Williams pointed out earlier this week).
• A Labour concern is being seen to lose to both Reform and Greens on the same day. To that end, the Greens not winning the West of England Mayor would really help.
• North Northamptonshire Council – which we know well from project work – might be the only authority in which Labour feels positive about its prospects. Reform is active here and possibly underrated. The Conservative majority is large on paper but new ward boundaries and the three parliamentary seats going Labour in 2024 make it competitive. This is a particularly interesting location as it is Midlands-swing-seat territory and both Reform (Wellingborough and rural areas) and the Greens (Kettering) are targeting gains. Most here seem to be betting on a No Overall Control result.
• In Doncaster – which has been ‘pro’ on both housing and energy – Labour is fighting a rearguard action to hold on to both the mayoralty and the council majority. There is a fair amount of pessimism here with Reform thought to be a threat in any seat, no matter how safe. There is a natural ceiling on Conservative seats here of around ten (Thatcher-era mining industry background), with anti-Labour voters more likely to back Reform. The Electoral Calculus website predicts Reform control; our contacts suggest Reform and Labour around equal on seats in a No Overall Control result. Labour may hold on to the mayoralty on a low overall %...if the Conservative vote holds up rather than drifting to Reform. 
• The Runcorn and Helsby constituency by-election is on a knife-edge. Labour has certainly thrown a lot at it, with MPs on a three-line whip to be seen up there. One MP told us it ‘wasn’t as bad as I thought’. Another that the urban-centre vote was holding up ok. Experienced heads will counsel: governments lose byelections – no panic required.
• There’s a certain school of thought that says: Reform performing well now, then ‘messing up’ once running some councils is not all a bad situation for the government, timed right for the vote to come back at the next general election. 

A reminder: it’s mainly next day counting again, so the local headlines will filter through rather than wake you up. The Runcorn result will be ready for a possible shock early morning headline, however. At which point we would be well and truly in the government’s ‘mid-term’.