The Makerfield by-election: Long road or tightrope

It’s become a cliché that Andy Burnham faces a long road to 10 Downing Street. First the Makerfield by-election, then persuading Labour MPs to back a leadership challenge, and finally winning over enough Labour members. Each step involves winning a different audience. 

His by-election campaign, unsurprisingly, combines campaigning on local issues like flood defences with some comment on national issues like social care. There is much less that could be called a programme for government. 

This may make it hard to win over parliamentary colleagues. He already faces scepticism in some quarters: critics point out that being a good mayor does not necessarily equip you to run the country. That will continue to be the case if Burnham is not able to explain how he would fund pledges like the nationalisation of water. 

This weekend’s row over the Defence Investment Plan is an example of just the kind of financial question he will face. Expected to be published ahead of July’s NATO summit, this will set government spending on defence in the coming years. 

But this will involve significant, and difficult, trade-offs. Any increase in defence spending will come at the expense of spending by other departments, and at upsetting their ministers. There has been a particularly strong reaction to the prospect of a 1% cut in spending on net zero and transport projects. 

Burnham has already committed to keeping the Chancellor’s fiscal rules should he become Prime Minister, so these challenges will not go away. That is a large part of Tony Blair’s recent intervention on the future of the Labour Party: changing leader will do nothing to change the big questions that the country faces. 

Communicating honestly about tough choices you face is an important part of building credibility. Part of the challenge for Andy Burnham is that what he feels he may need to say in Makerfield to win there does not help at the next stage – making it less of a long road to Number 10, and more of a tightrope.