Political A to B – is Andy the new Boris?

Populism takes control in Downing Street – Part 2 

In the last few days, we have witnessed not just a simple transfer of power from one Labour Prime Minister to another, but a populist revolution at the heart of government. It did not require a grand election victory by Reform UK, Restore or the Greens but a simple bloodless coup that transferred power from the establishment Labour Party to a new populist wing of the Labour Party. 

Populism is usually thrown around in the media as a derisory term, but it reflects a deepening sense of unhappiness and despair from the electorate, who in May handed a record low level of support to the traditional two major parties. Labour was punished from the right by Reform UK and from the left by the Greens, and there has been much discussion about which direction they should move to tackle the threat.  

Instead, they have opted for a populist leader in the shape of Andy Burnham – “man of the people”, “king of the north”, “student of the Trump playbook” – all terms that have been used to describe him. Some would not take kindly to the comparison, but Andy and Boris have much in common – where there was ‘Boosterism’, we now have ‘Manchesterism’, and where there was “levelling-up”, we now have “good growth for every postcode”.  

Essentially, a blend of politics that attempts to speak to those who feel disconnected from the power, decisions and opportunities of the country, and presents an optimistic view to how they can play their part. Two political leaders who led great cities, who work better without a podium, who never really look completely natural in a suit, and connect with people on the street in a way in which most politicians can only ever dream of.  

What does practical Labour populism look like? We are light on the big-picture detail and indeed have been promised the ten-year plan in the autumn. However, four days into the new government we have seen a daily 6am populist policy announcement to cut domestic fuel bills (by removing VAT), cap bus fares back to £2 (the same level as the last outgoing Conservative government), and reduce hospitality business rates by 20% (saving money for pubs, clubs and live music venues). Alongside a wholesale change in the cabinet that brings implied tones of reducing welfare spending, boosting defence spending and a tougher approach to immigration, these are all campaign issues for opposition parties. There has been talk of easing the tax threshold burden, of liberating some of the North Sea oil reserves, and there now seems a likely review of the plan to release some serious offenders earlier than their original sentences. 

The challenge with the creation of No. 10 North is that there are more than two sides to the populist conundrum – it is not just North vs. South, the UK vs. global billionaires, or the elites vs. everyone else. It is also about how to reconnect every individual into being active shareholders in a nation where they see some benefits but also carry some responsibilities. I always remember talking to a taxi driver in Aberdeen during the Scottish independence referendum – his take was “London, Edinburgh, makes no difference – they are both a long way from me and I have no involvement in what happens”. As such, devolution is a great opportunity but amidst a landscape of local government reorganisation that is seen as having the opposite impact in some areas, how do you take government back to the people?   

Ultimately, populism is popular until it’s not and in few areas is delivery as polarised at a local level as housing and planning. The return of Angela Rayner to lead MHCLG is significant and welcome in the housing sector, and the retention of Mathew Pennycook as Housing and Planning Minister is a much-needed sign of stability in a job that is generally more insecure than being Prime Minister. But the balance of national need, local voices, centralised decision-making and devolved planning, rents, costs, infrastructure, regulations and all the other ingredients that go into the hot cake of planning is not an easy one to strike – and for many locations, populism will dissipate if people feel they do not have a voice. 

Opinion polls have been fascinating for the last two years, but this week we have seen the Reform UK lead drop to 2% in two polls and disappear altogether in another - for the first time in 17 months. It seems there is a general desire for populist leadership in the polling, but will that now be found in the new Labour Prime Minister or will voters become tired and look elsewhere again? Only time will tell and the next few months leading up to the Budget will set the scene for the remaining three years of this parliament.  

In the meantime, and politics aside, I’d like to embrace some optimism and take a break from the political volatility and drama we have become so accustomed to. Let’s see if we can’t just have some economic stability and growth for a change, and let businesses plan, invest and succeed, even just for a few months! That would be the most populist achievement of all.