The rise and rise of Reform. Why is Nigel Farage making Wales his priority?

Reform’s leader travelled to Port Talbot in South Wales yesterday to be pictured proudly with the Welsh flag, Y Ddraig Goch, and pledge that his party will win power at the 2026 elections in Wales.   

So, why the interest in all things Welsh? The latest polls do indicate that Mr Farage is right to think that at next April’s Senedd elections Reform will be serious challengers for real power. 

The Labour party, which has dominated the Welsh political scene for over a century, looks set to be eclipsed not just by Reform but also by Plaid Cymru. YouGov polling shows that Reform is currently polling second in Wales behind the Welsh nationalists.   

At the last general election, Mr Farage launched his party manifesto at another highly iconic Welsh location, Merthyr Tydfil. Both Merthyr and Port Talbot are symbolic of the economic and social challenges that have beset Wales for generations. Yesterday, Mr Farage set out his party’s ambition to reindustrialise Wales, which could entail the reopening of coal mines closed a generation ago. 

Reform is seeking to channel the sense of alienation felt by many across Britain and the lack of trust in the two main political parties. Across the UK, there are now five parties regularly polling above 10%. A fragmented, angry electorate feels let down by both main parties. 

The timing of Mr Farage’s speech, just ahead of tomorrow’s spending review by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is further evidence of a party which demonstrates it has a strategic focus on gaining power.  

Reform’s policy agenda is more subtle and more targeted than many commentators have appreciated or recognise, such as using the tax system to prioritise families. It would be wrong to perceive Nigel Farage as a mini-me Trump. More legitimate questions facing Reform include whether the party has the breadth and depth of experience to run a country. In Wales, currently, it has no leader.  

Much of what the Chancellor promises tomorrow in her Spending Review is being interpreted as an urgent need to stem this momentum. It’s anticipated that Wales will be a particular beneficiary of Rachel Reeves’ largesse. But the pivotal question remains whether that investment and spending can make a difference to the daily lives of people up and down the country before voters next cast their vote.