Road to COP – Lizzo was right, the truth hurts

We have touchdown in Belém. But not everyone has landed.

As leaders arrive in Brazil for COP30, the runway is as telling as the agenda. The private jets of the world’s biggest emitters - namely the United States, China and India - remain grounded elsewhere. Their non-attendance isn’t surprising but has caused some frustration when set against the backdrop of the “virtual impossibility” of keeping global warming below 1.5°C, as declared today by the World Meteorological Organisation. At a moment when international cooperation is needed more than ever, the silence from the biggest players speaks volumes.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called this the “COP of truth”. But as the saying goes, be careful what you wish for, and to paraphrase Lizzo, the truth often hurts. The optimism of Paris Agreement has given way to realism, and in some cases, resignation. With 2025 on track to be one of the hottest years ever recorded, emissions continue to be on an upwards trajectory despite the pledges and promises set at previous COPs. Some suggest that the UN climate process is faltering, and with major powers absent and national commitments falling short, some have moved from the question ‘what will be done?’ on to ‘who’s still willing to do it?’

The summit has, in some respects, become a stage not just for climate action, but political choreography. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made a (conveniently timed) escape from Westminster’s chaos to showcase Britain’s green credentials. His message, according to headlines, is that he is ‘all in’ on net zero, citing that clean energy isn’t just about saving the planet, but an engine for economic renewal. Yet behind the rhetoric, there’s a noticeable shift in approach. With the Autumn Budget fast approaching and mounting pressure from Reform and Conservative voices calling to roll back net zero commitments, Starmer is being more candid than ever about where Britain will and will not put its money. 

Brazil’s newly launched Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) is a bold attempt to reframe forest preservation as an investment opportunity rather than a donation drive, to which Brazil has committed $1 billion. Whilst being ‘incredibly supportive’ of the initiative, Starmer has said that the UK will not be stumping up public money. At least not yet. The decision, justified by Downing Street as caution over the fund’s “early-stage” status, has raised eyebrows since the initiative was a nominee of Prince William’s Earthshot Prize. However, while the optics may be awkward, in the spirit of ‘COP of truth,’ Starmer’s stance arguably reflects a more honest reckoning with the realities of climate leadership under economic and political pressure.

Amid the fatigue, there are flickers of hope. Renewable energy is scaling faster than expected, driven more by market forces than multilateral agreements. The Earthshot Prize continues to spotlight innovation, from Lagos Fashion Week’s circular design standards to Bogotá’s urban sustainability efforts. These stories offer a counter-narrative of creativity, local leadership, and tangible impact. 

This summit, it seems, is not just about climate, but is also about credibility. Who shows up, what they commit to, and how they follow through will shape the future of global climate governance. For the UK, the path forward will be a balance between ambition and action. Starmer’s clean energy pitch may resonate economically, but global leadership requires more than domestic growth figures. It demands bold commitments now more than ever when the rest of the world is watching.