Signed, spilled, and delivered

The UK’s latest trade agreement with the US has been signed, but apparently not sealed, after reporters saw Donald Trump drop the ‘very important document’ on the ground, and Keir Starmer pick it up for him, at the pair’s joint announcement at the G7 summit in Canada.

Staying true to his caricature, Trump’s ‘deal’ seems to have been shaped more by personal instinct than grand strategy, with the President openly saying that the UK’s protection from future tariffs is because, “I like them”. It’s not the most robust trade safeguard, but it’s on-brand and while this transactional tone is typical Trump, it does raises questions over durability.

For UK businesses, and the government’s broader push for growth, there are some real wins to take away. The headline benefit is for British carmakers, with tariffs on UK-made vehicles heading to the US now set at 10% — good news for companies like Jaguar Land Rover, which have been pushing hard to stay competitive. Defence and aerospace firms, including BAE Systems, also look set to benefit, providing visually strong examples of British industrial success, especially against the continued developments in Iran.

But critics have been quick to point out that this isn’t a new trade deal but rather a reduction of tariffs that were only introduced on ‘Liberation Day’ back on 2April this year. Some argue that the UK hasn’t returned to square one, and the deal is more about continued damage control than the “great show of strength” Starmer claimed. Trade-offs in the deal include an agreement for the UK to open its doors to more US beef and bioethanol — a move less likely to land well with domestic producers. British bioethanol companies, like ABF and Ensus, are now sounding the alarm that they urgently need government support to survive, fearing that cheaper US imports could undercut them. Grant Pearson, chairman of Ensus UK, was quick to comment: “We are at the eleventh hour, and the government urgently needs to find a solution to a crisis of its own making."

Steel has also been left out of the agreement, with a 25% tariff still in place. Many believe this is due to concerns the UK could become a back door for cheaper imports, particularly from countries like China. It’s a reminder that this isn’t a sealed deal (literally or figuratively) as negotiators continue to work through technical details around the steel industry’s future.

Still, the government can count this as a win, and Starmer will be relieved to secure the announcement ahead of the new Industrial Strategy, which has had significant build-up across many industrial sectors. Expected at the end of June, the strategy is set to focus heavily on infrastructure, growth industries, and global competitiveness. This trade agreement provides timely narrative support: it shows the UK can still secure international deals and that global markets remain open to British goods, even in a shifting political landscape.

But the timing question looms. Will the benefits of this deal or the Industrial Strategy land soon enough for Labour to see the rewards?

Large-scale infrastructure projects, whether roads, rail, or renewables, can take years to plan, let alone deliver. The Lower Thames Crossing, back in the news this week, is the poster child for this case. Granted its DCO earlier this year and receiving another £590 million this week, it has been in formal planning for 15 years. The DCO application amounted to more than 359,000 pages and would run nearly five times the length of the road itself if laid out end to end.

Announcements, spilled or not, make headlines, but whether the public will ever see the benefits is another question. Labour will need to think carefully about how to keep the story alive long enough for the impact to be visible. There’s a real opportunity to tell positive stories about UK industry being back on the front foot: securing international markets and contributing to national growth. But if the threat to domestic producers like bioethanol firms sparks difficult questions about whether the government is trading away local industries in pursuit of bigger deals, sentiment could turn fast.

Whether the public buy into the long game remains to be seen. But ahead of the UK’s Industrial Strategy announcement, the narrative wheels are turning.