Some thoughts on Gorton: why the by-election may put a Denton Labour's Manchester stronghold

The eyes of British politics will be focussed sharply on Greater Manchester this February. The by-election in Gorton and Denton, which has already made a stir in the national press (see Andy Burnham), has all the hallmarks of a classic contest. It will play out not only in a fiercely fought local battle but also on the national political stage, where its implications make it one of the most important by-elections in a generation.   

Polarised candidates will be fighting it out in what is a demographically divided seat, awkwardly combining the diverse and liberal inner suburbs of Manchester with the traditionally white working-class area of Denton. Labour has everything to lose, but the winners are far from certain.  

Whilst the Gorton and Denton seat is traditionally amongst the safest for Labour in the country, its diverse demographics give a snapshot of the party’s fracturing national electoral coalition. The Manchester wards average 40% Muslim, with 42% of the population being a graduate or university student – just the type of voters that are peeling off to the Greens or Workers Party (noting that the latter is not putting forward a candidate for this election). Contrast this with Denton, in the Tameside borough, where the three wards have an average white population of 83% and represent Labour’s traditional core working class vote, just the sort of demographic Reform is targeting.    

Nationally, Reform has the momentum behind it, following a recent spate of defections and local election wins. It has also selected probably the most recognisable candidate of this by-election: academic, author and GB News presenter, Matt Goodwin. Sharp, eloquent and good looking, Goodwin is pitching the election as a ‘referendum on Keir Starmer’, a sensible strategy given the unpopularity of the PM. But what are Goodwin’s chances of stealing a win? 

Despite the weight of expectation hanging over Reform, the reality is that their path to victory is incredibly narrow. For whilst they may poll well in the Denton parts of the constituency, the demographics in Manchester couldn’t be more opposed to their politics and it is these Manchester wards that make up two thirds of the electorate. Their only real hope of sneaking a win is by a split vote on the left as both the Green and Labour parties are tactically positioning themselves as the “stop Reform” option. 

Like Reform, the Greens also have some momentum behind them on the national stage. Their new(ish) leader, Zack Polanski, has raised the profile of the party in recent months and his party is poised to soak up Labour’s disaffected voters on the left – the types who live in the Manchester parts of this seat. A Green win would be an upset of epic proportions, though a solid performance could still be bad news for Starmer. 

There is still a decent chance of a Labour hold in this contest. Manchester is Labour’s heartland and the seat (and its predecessors) has only ever returned a Labour MP. Against the backdrop of the turbulence of government and their dire national polling, a win for Labour would be seen as decent victory, though strong polling by either Reform of the Greens could be seen as a wider threat. 

I’m not going to make predictions on the result – the variables of demographics, turnout and split votes genuinely make this a hard one to call, even by the most experienced of political commentators. But it is very clear that anything other than a hold by Labour would be a huge upset, with reverberations all the way to Westminster and echoes across town halls and the devolved parliaments, where elections are occurring in May. A win by either the Green Party or Reform would also put even more pressure on Starmer’s leadership. Labour really does have everything to lose, but who wins from this contest is yet to be seen.