The Spring Statement: Reeves comes out swinging

Few expected today’s Spring Statement to be dramatic. It had been trailed as a sober fiscal update rather than a political set piece. What followed felt rather different.

While the statement was light in fiscal substance, it was anything but restrained politically. The Chancellor was in a combative mood, directing sustained fire at the Conservatives, dismissing Reform as “the same failed Tory politicians” and attacking the newly enlarged Green Parliamentary Party for their policy to withdraw from NATO. Even the Liberal Democrats received a passing broadside, though they may quietly welcome the reassurance that someone in government still considers them relevant enough to attack.

This was not a Chancellor uncertain of her footing. At times she appeared to be positively enjoying herself, far removed from the tearful figure spotted at PMQs last summer. The performance was less of a technocratic briefing and more a political counter offensive, designed to remind voters - and perhaps, more urgently, Labour MPs - why the party was elected in the first place. Austerity. Brexit. Liz Truss. The past was invoked throughout her speech as a cautionary tale of the political alternative.

Her critique of the opposition was unambiguous. The Conservative leader turning up each week, she suggested, was a waste of time. They would not win again. They were “pathetic”. The language was deliberate, repetitive and clearly intended as red meat for her unsettled backbenchers.

The refrain throughout was equally clear - “stay the course”. The prize, she argued, was “within reach” but only if discipline was maintained. Any change of direction would, she warned, wipe out progress and reintroduce political instability – a thinly veiled message to anyone in her party contemplating an alternative course, or indeed an alternative leader.

And yet, beneath the rhetorical clash, the economic picture remains more sobering.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded growth for next year to 1.1%. Unemployment is now forecast to peak at 5.3%, higher than previously expected and already close to a five-year high. While inflation may fall faster than projected in the autumn, and lower borrowing costs have increased the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom to £23.6bn, that margin remains modest by historical standards. Recent market volatility is a reminder of how quickly it can be eroded, before we start to consider current events unfolding in the Middle East.

The speech was delivered at full volume, even if the economic headroom behind it remained limited.

The speech therefore had two audiences. Economically, little changed. Politically, the gloves were off. The Chancellor was not charting a new path; she was defending the existing one and daring her critics to offer something better.

For Labour backbenchers unsettled by polling dips and bruising by-election results, the message was unmistakable. Reform UK is recycled Conservatism. The Greens are strategically reckless. The Conservatives are defined by their recent record. Stay united, hold the line and resist the pull of internal panic, whatever the local elections may bring.

The speech may have been combative, but the numbers remain stubborn. Growth is weaker, unemployment higher and the fiscal cushion modest. Rhetoric can rally a party, but it cannot move the forecasts.

For now, this was not a retreat into managerial dullness. It was a Chancellor coming out swinging while insisting the economic course remains unchanged. The substance may not have shifted, but the tone unmistakably has.