The summer Reform took over

The clear winners from this summer’s parliamentary recess have undoubtedly been Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Almost every week over the usually quiet summer period, Reform found itself at the centre of the political narrative, putting its new media studio to good use, with Farage and co. frequently beaming out announcements or defections.   

From protests against hotels being used to house migrants to securing its first Conservative MSP defection, north of the border, Nigel Farage’s party has successfully commanded the news cycle with remarkable consistency.  

This week, Reform announced its plans to carry out mass deportations of illegal migrants. Named ‘Operation Restoring Justice’, Reform said this would be achieved by taking the UK out of almost every international convention that could deter flights from taking off the ground, including leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, striking a returns deal with the Taliban (something the government hasn’t ruled out), and replacing this all with a British Bill of Rights. 

Sceptics argue that Reform’s plans will never work and that their programme of division, particularly on the international stage and with Europe, will actually have perverse impacts. EU reset minister Nick Thomas-Symonds tried this approach during yesterday’s media rounds. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem anyone is that willing to listen to the government at the moment.  If Reform can maintain its momentum in the polls and convert it at the ballot box next year, Britain’s two-party system might be facing a genuine threat for the first time in a very long time.  

Ironically, post-Brexit Britain bears a striking resemblance to Europe. 

The UK is not alone in this. Across Europe, traditional parties are losing support as challengers capitalise on the gap between lofty promises and policy delivery, leading to increasingly unstable political landscapes.  

In Germany and the Netherlands, once-dominant governing parties now face fragmented parliaments and insurgent movements, while France is facing its third political crisis in just over a year. Even Romania, the country with the highest share of emigrants among EU states (24%), has a prominent nationalist movement blaming immigrants from Southeast Asia for the country’s dire economic situation. In this context, Reform’s success can be viewed as a reflection of wider discontent among Western nations with the perceived failures of global institutions, mass migration, and the perceived inability of established forces to address these issues.  

Can the government reclaim the narrative? 

Parliament returns next week, and the government will be keen to wrestle back the initiative. Rumours of a reshuffle, perhaps as early as next week, continue to grow.  

Whether Labour can turn around its polling will depend on its ability to deliver. As demonstrated by recent polls, most Reform voters could be lured back to Labour if it manages to improve the cost of living and curb NHS waiting times. Previously supportive business leaders publicly accusing the Starmer government of a “lack of ability” suggest that criticism can be reversed if the government starts delivering on its growth agenda. 

Against this backdrop, Reform’s rise appears less like a surge driven purely by migration and more like a symptom of broader disillusionment with the records of both major parties on delivering key issues, such as housing, infrastructure, and stagnant economic growth.  

What this summer recess confirmed is that Reform is no longer a marginal political movement. It has captured the political conversation and, at least for now, positioned itself as a genuine alternative to the status quo.