Change is coming – what happens after the Makerfield by-election

“Change is coming.” 

These are the prophetic words with which Andy Burnham chose to address a campaign rally yesterday evening. No matter the outcome of today’s by-election, which could prove to be the most consequential of this century, the result will have profound implications for the governance of the UK. What matters, though, is what change will look like in practice, and how quickly it can be delivered.  
 
It would be remiss not to first look at the current Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, and assess his willingness to fight for his role. Starmer has already said that he will offer Burnham a role in his Cabinet if he is successful. Wounded by the resignations of the Defence Secretary and the Armed Forces Minister last week, Starmer has spent months grappling with the fallout of the Mandelson scandal and with broader questions about the pace of change and tackling the cost-of-living crisis.  
 
Despite this, Starmer maintains that he has no intention of resigning. If he chooses to stand in a leadership contest, Starmer will defend his record on inflation, the UK’s economic recovery and point to geopolitical issues to warn against a change in the premiership. The Defence Investment Plan, which was the crux of the ministerial resignations, is due to be published imminently ahead of the NATO Summit on 7-8 July. Starmer will also argue that leadership elections are damaging for the party and that change does not always guarantee better governance or electoral success. Ministerial resignations like those experienced under the Johnson government are expected if Starmer chooses not to give way, with Ed Miliband tipped to be one of the first resignations. 
 
Wes Streeting is also an important factor in the leadership contest. An outsider, on the right of the Labour Party, Streeting has publicly announced that he has the 81 MPs necessary to trigger a leadership election but is waiting to see how events unravel before playing his cards. 

Returning to today, what will be key to Burnham’s appeal is the potential size of his majority and whether the Reform UK and Restore Britain vote added together will outweigh Burnham’s vote, even if he wins. A larger majority will arguably give Burnham a broader mandate to fight for the leadership.  
 
The final factor to consider is the Manchester mayoral election which will be triggered if Burnham is elected. This could be used to delay any potential leadership challenge. Change is coming, but the pace and form it will take is yet to be determined.