A recovery measured in discipline, not exuberance: Views from the property sector’s EXPO REAL

Some industry events or titles are more than the sum of their parts, cutting through across different markets and audiences. I would wager that MIPIM is one of those events. To refer to it as a property industry conference is like referring to Vogue as a fashion industry trade title: perhaps true, but it rather misses the point.

MIPIM is variously considered a jamboree, a barometer of industry sentiment and an unparalleled opportunity to network with just about every person you might need to see, all against a backdrop of rosé and the French Riviera.

So, if that’s MIPIM, then what is EXPO REAL, its more autumnal German cousin? As one person put it to me this week: MIPIM is where you go to celebrate the work you did at EXPO.

Which begs the question: is the work being done at EXPO now what will give the industry cause for celebration at MIPIM 2027 and beyond?

It is no secret that the past few years have been difficult for real estate. War, inflation and the sharp rise in interest rates have all had a profound effect on the cost and availability of capital, transaction volumes and, perhaps most importantly, sentiment. The exuberance that characterised parts of the market has been replaced by a rather more measured approach.

That sense of discipline is certainly evident at EXPO this year. Nobody is pretending the market is easy, but nor does it feel stuck and many are keen to emphasise that the right strategy and the right professionals can make a difference.

There is also a very mixed picture across Europe, with plenty of challenges, opportunities and political turbulence and often all three in the same country. Germany, and Berlin in particular, remains a recurring topic of conversation, with strong housing demand set against a more challenging regulatory and political environment. France is prompting caution for different reasons, with recent volatility in the bond market adding another layer of uncertainty. Further south meanwhile, Spain and Portugal are attracting plenty of attention, although Spain’s snap election is another reminder that seemingly more positive stories are not immune from the political uncertainty permeating Europe.

There is optimism at EXPO, but it is tempered by plenty of reasons for pause. The mood feels less like an industry waiting for the starting gun and more like one accepting that it needs to run the race on the track it has been given.

Diligence is extending, assumptions are being scrutinised, and those who remain patient hope that doing so will indeed be a virtue. It seems there is a near universal appetite to move forward, but nobody seems particularly interested in getting carried away.

So, will we have something to celebrate by the time the industry reconvenes on the Croisette next March? Quite possibly, but if EXPO is any guide, it will be a celebration characterised by discipline rather than exuberance: a carefully measured pour, rather than an overload of froth.