Seven Prime Ministers on: Is Burnham’s Britain a turning point for business?

A decade on from the Brexit referendum, the UK finds itself once again in political transition. Seven prime ministers in ten years demonstrates the increasing difficulty of governing modern Britain. The likely arrival of Andy Burnham in Downing Street will bring about a new direction for the Labour party with his approach being distinct from what has gone before.  

So, what political direction might come next? We asked some of SEC Newgate’s experts for their views. Greg Rosen, Senior Counsel, SEC Newgate, and Labour Party historian and former Fabian Society Vice-Chair, sees a bigger role for expert advisers: “Starmer and his team too often assumed that Whitehall had the answers to solving complex public policy questions that Labour was elected to fix. They found too late that this was not always the case. Andy Burnham saw this problem from Manchester and had seen it before – for example over the infected blood scandal, where Whitehall advice was flawed. Burnham and his team will need to ensure that government gets better at harnessing expert insights from outside Whitehall, including from business and investors. This is a big change, but vital to improving the speed and effectiveness of policymaking and regulation so that a Burnham government can deliver results.” 

Burnham’s record as Mayor of Greater Manchester points to a style of governing focused on visible delivery, particularly through intervention in transport, housing and regional growth. For business, that signals a shift towards a more politically directed model of economic management, one that is more willing to shape markets and set expectations around social and regional impact.  

The central question is whether Burnham’s approach can be reconciled with fiscal credibility. To date, his biggest weakness has been his handling of that issue. His comments about not wanting Britain to be “in hock to the bond markets” triggered a sharp backlash and raised concerns about how far his instincts might diverge from market expectations. While he has since sought to reassure on sticking to fiscal rules, the episode exposed an underlying tension that will define any Burnham premiership: how to pursue a more interventionist, investment-led agenda without undermining economic confidence.  

That tension will ultimately be resolved through people as much as policy. The emerging contest for who ends up as Burnham’s Chancellor has initially focused on figures such as Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband, who are vying for the role. All possible choices come with risks for Burnham and briefing has already begun. The Unite union's general secretary, Sharon Graham, said Miliband as Chancellor would be a "noose around the neck" of job creation. 

Whoever the new Chancellor is, they will be keeping a close eye on the Starmer government’s upcoming Defence Investment Plan, due to be published ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey in less than a fortnight’s time.  

Dafydd Rees, Senior Counsel, SEC Newgate, former broadcaster and adviser at the Tony Blair Institute argues: “Some of the economic team around the Prime Minister in waiting have sought to set out fresh thinking on how to find the money to increase defence spending. These boil down to spreading the long-term cost in the way that much infrastructure is financed, to creating new multinational, institutions or ‘war bonds’. According to media reports, the Treasury has blocked the idea of offering tax breaks to incentivise investors. Without a clear decision, the UK is certain to face criticism from an angry President Trump and other members of the NATO alliance that Europe is rearming faster than the UK. Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s Foreign Minister has warned without a credible plan to back up its pledges on defence, the UK’s global influence is only set to suffer.” 

Beyond the immediate pressures of defence spending, the bigger test for a Burnham premiership will lie in navigating the domestic pressures that have confounded successive governments: stagnant productivity, deep regional inequality and stretched public services. Delivering visible improvements on housing, infrastructure and living standards while maintaining business confidence will demand a level of policy discipline and delivery capacity that has proved elusive over the past decade.