Will the sun rise in the east for Reform on Friday?

On the eve of poll for the 2026 council elections, we take a look at the contests in the eastern region, where the expectations are highest for Reform UK gains. 

Will the sun rise in the east for Reform on Friday? 

The East of England has a little of everything: county council elections in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex, unitary elections in Thurrock, Southend and Peterborough, a directly elected mayor in Watford and elections in another seventeen districts across Cambridgeshire, Hertfordshire, Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk. 

Across the five counties, 611 council seats will be contested on Thursday (excluding a few casual vacancies) and while there is no hiding the fact that this is a dominant region for the Conservatives (defending 249 seats), there are also significant numbers of Labour (130) and Liberal Democrats (135) seats being defended. Add in 11 Reform seats, 24 Greens and 62 seats that are a combination of independents and resident groups and you have the starting numbers for the race on Thursday. 

For election watchers, analysis is complicated by the number of councils electing only a third of councillors this year. In some cases, even if the controlling party lose every single seat up for election, they do not lose control. Labour could lose all its seats up for election in Stevenage or Ipswich on Thursday and maintain a slim majority. For the Conservatives, a wipeout in Broxbourne will leave them with a majority of one. For the Lib Dems, they cannot lose control of the council in Watford (different to the mayor), and even losing all of their 18 seats in St Albans will leave them with half the seats. 

Other councils are more intriguing and some of the ones to watch are: 

Thurrock: Historically a contest between Labour and Conservatives, but all betting is that Labour will lose to a landslide switch to Reform. 

Cambridge: Labour control the council with 23 of the 42 seats but are defending 10 on Thursday. Facing strong challenges from both the LibDems and Greens, Labour’s will almost certainly lose overall control of the council.  

County Councils: The Conservatives have large majorities across all three eastern county councils but with all-out elections, the polling and political betting points to large losses to Reform in all three. The key question will be whether Reform can achieve overall majorities in all three or whether other parties can halt their march.  

Norwich: Labour control the city as a minority administration, with 19 of the 39 seats, but have to defend 7 of them tomorrow. The Greens are in second place with 16 seats, so this battle is heading towards a very possible Green council gain on Friday.  

Harlow: A small council with only 33 members and yet this town in the west of Essex has been an accurate political barometer for decades, returning an MP on the government benches for the last 43 years. Elections are in thirds, with the Conservatives currently having a one seat majority. The Conservatives are defending six seats and Labour five. One to watch to see how much damage Reform might do and which of the two parties might be the biggest loser. 

In Southend, Colchester, Epping Forest, Peterborough, Huntingdonshire, and Rochford, there are already multiple parties and complicated maths around control and coalitions. Add Reform and others into the mix this year, and the eventual composition of these councils is impossible to predict. 

How can we judge success as the final declarations come in?  

Labour’s polling suggests they could lose the majority of seats they are defending. A bad performance in the east may be no worse than expectations. 

With Conservative polling suggesting they could lose half of their seats around the country, they are also preparing for a bad night in the region. Anything better than that will be a relief. 

The expected growth in the Green vote is almost certain to see them add more seats in the region, and we can confidently expect them to gain seats in Suffolk, Norwich, Cambridge and Peterborough. 

The Lib Dems will hope for gains, but they start from quite a strong base and facing the squeeze from all sides. 

Perhaps the biggest test is for Reform. Their expectations are high, and this region is very much their heartland (three of their five MPs elected in 2024 were in the east). Nigel Farage represents Clacton in Essex. The Reform leadership team have conducted so many rallies, street events and media stunts in the region in the last couple of weeks, that one local resident even suggested there was a new town between Clacton and Southend - Millbank-on-Sea, referring to the Reform party headquarters.  

Some polls have suggested that Reform will gain over 2,000 council seats tomorrow and online polling website PollCheck currently predicts over 320 gains for Reform in the East of England. However, should they gain fewer than 200, there will be questions about the momentum and endurance of Reform in a region where they would need to secure a large number of the 54 MPs to get into government. 

Once the results are in, who will be in a position to run the councils? With new hung councils and likely significant groups of Reform councillors, who will they work with? And who will work with them? We are likely to see some interesting negotiations in the weeks ahead, especially when you consider that many of these councillors are being elected with one priority in mind – to manage the transition to new unitary authorities as part of local government reorganisation. More on that next month, once the votes have been counted!