Starmer gets on with the job as attention shifts to Makerfield

There has been no shortage of political drama since the local elections on Thursday 7 May. Nearly 100 Labour MPs publicly declared that they have lost confidence in the Prime Minister; Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary but stopped short of launching an immediate leadership bid; and Josh Simons stepped down as MP for Makerfield, paving the way for Andy Burnham to stand in the forthcoming by-election, and potentially secure a route back to Westminster to contest the Labour leadership.

However, Sir Keir Starmer has largely ignored the noise, opting instead to keep calm and carry on. His approach has been to focus squarely on delivery, with the view that the business of government must continue despite the turmoil. It is expected that Rachel Reeves will set out details of a cost-of-living support package on Thursday, with reports in The Times and The Sun suggesting she will maintain the 5p cut to fuel duty amid the ongoing energy pressures linked to the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, The Times has also reported that Starmer is expected to approve an £18 billion increase in defence spending, following warnings from National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell that the UK risks losing its standing as a global player without a significant uplift.

These represent substantial fiscal commitments and underline Starmer’s determination to press ahead with key policy priorities, regardless of the surrounding political uncertainty.

Nonetheless, there is little doubt that the political centre of gravity over the coming weeks will shift to Makerfield and the question of whether Andy Burnham can defend Labour’s 5,399 majority. This is far from a foregone conclusion. Reform UK secured roughly 50% of the vote share in the area at the local elections, and Nigel Farage has already indicated that the party will “throw absolutely everything at it”. Early attack lines suggest Reform is testing the label ‘Open Borders Burnham’, while reports indicate that Farage will also target Burnham’s record on grooming gangs. At the same time, Burnham’s historical comments on Brexit, despite subsequent efforts to row them back, have resurfaced as a vulnerability.

The Conservatives have also warned of a potential ‘Burnham penalty’. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has argued that market concerns around leadership instability, coupled with Burnham’s economic stance, could drive up borrowing costs.

However, should Burnham successfully return to Parliament, recent polling suggests his pathway to Downing Street, via the Labour membership, would be relatively clear. A YouGov survey indicates that Burnham would comfortably beat the Prime Minister and several other likely contenders in a head-to-head contest, securing 59% of the membership vote against Starmer and as much as 80% in a direct contest with Wes Streeting.

With the by-election scheduled for Thursday 18 June, Starmer faces a narrowing window to regain political momentum and potentially head off a challenge from Burnham, should the Greater Manchester Mayor first secure his route back to Westminster.