A small climate victory during a record-breaking summer

This summer, we have broken numerous climate records and seen a wide variety of real-world climate change impacts. We are coming to the end of the fifth heat wave in what will likely be the hottest year ever on record. The heat and lack of rainfall have resulted in droughts across two-thirds of England and all of Wales, resulting in water restrictions for 27 million people now. This has caused real impacts, as the extreme weather is driving up visits to the A&E, causing train delays, and even leading to an increase in crime.  Last week was the first ever use of the national emergency alert for wildfires (though there are questions of whether this was the appropriate use for that system).  Thus, it should come as no surprise that the Times has reported that ministers have advised that it would not be good to approve drilling in Jackdaw and Rosebank oil fields at this time, ‘due to the optics’.  Instead, the decisions will be postponed until the Autumn and may include only Jackdaw but not the larger Rosebank oil field. 

Over the past month, Andy Burnham has said relatively little about his position on climate change but hinted at loosening some of the targets for a more ‘programmatic’ approach focused on energy affordability. Last week we saw a proposal to slow the electric vehicle transition. The new energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has also said that she may step back from the previous goal of decarbonising the electric sector by 2030 if it risked higher energy prices. It was anticipated that both oil fields would be approved this week, framed as a practical solution to reduce energy costs, generate jobs, and also help pay for the energy transition to renewables. 

Climate activists will view the reported delay as a victory, but it's hardly the end of the story. Come the autumn, when this summer's weather is forgotten, there will be renewed calls to approve at least one of the oil fields. If approved, they could begin production almost immediately, supplying new gas just as the winter sets in and discussions around high energy prices and fuel poverty begin to dominate the news. 

Interestingly, public concern about climate change and support for renewable energy remains very high, however, this is not the main issue driving many voters. Reform, which continues to do well in polls, has been clearly opposed to renewable energy. Richard Tice most recently is quoted as encouraging individuals to enjoy the heat and even consider the benefits to the English wine industry.  Thus, Andy Burnham may be shifting to the right to counter Reform’s messaging, even though it is not necessarily what potential voters want.

There is widespread agreement that energy prices need to be addressed to reduce consumer costs and encourage economic development; however, it is very difficult to do. As our team has written before, gas prices are set by the global markets, so Jackdaw and Rosebank cannot reduce energy prices themselves. Renewable energy sources are cheaper to develop; however, electricity costs continue to be linked to gas prices. There are proposals to delink the two, but they are complicated and will take time. Meanwhile, some renewable energy developments are being asked to swich off because the National Grid does not have the capacity to transfer the energy from where and when it is produced to where and when it is needed.   Thus, we still have work to do to upgrade the grid, bring on new renewable energy developments, and decouple the electric sector from gas prices before we can see meaningful reductions in energy costs.