Is the UK ready for war? 

Does Britannia still rule the waves? With Royal Navy unable to deploy a single naval vessel to the Middle East for three weeks following the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf, the growing view seems to be “not really”.   
  
As the Labour Chair of the Defence Select Committee put it to the Prime Minister in a meeting of the Liaison Committee earlier this week: “… when they started the war, it was embarrassing – we couldn’t muster one single naval asset around the region. Are you embarrassed?”. “No,” said the Prime Minister in response. If asked, “is the UK ready for war?” the Prime Minister would be unlikely to repeat the same answer, but many might worry the answer may be the same.   
  
As the world wonders where President Trump will turn his eyes and the military might of the US to next, the UK feels like an onlooker. The Prime Minister admitted he – like the rest of the world - does not know when the conflict will end. In this new era of uncertainty, difficult choices lie ahead about how to fund the UK military.   
  
With war driving up prices, mortgage rates and interest repayments whilst compounding domestic issues, the government’s nightmare scenario would involve facing up to unpalatable political choices that governments of all forms have put off for years: choosing between debt repayments or destroyers, welfare or warfighting readiness, hospital or helicopters. The Prime Minister promised to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2026. The ambition is to increase it to 3% by the end of the current Parliament – repeated by the Chancellor in her Mais lecture last week – which is likely to be 2029.   
  
Reform UK and the Conservatives argue that the government needs to go further and faster to put the UK on a war footing. Both parties have, however, undermined their position by supporting the US strikes on Iran before quickly changing course when they saw public opinion on the conflict. Reform UK is yet to appoint a defence spokesperson and is unlikely to until after the local elections in May. The Conservatives used one of their opposition day debate slots in the Commons to attack the government’s record on defence and urge it to rearm immediately. The Liberal Democrats repeated calls for the issuance of war bonds to fund defence.  

Labour claims that defence was left hollowed out by the Conservatives while in government and they are rapidly increasing funding for defence. Defence Secretary John Healey confirmed on the BBC’s Today programme this morning that British forces are “lined up and ready” to take action on Russia’s shadow fleet avoiding sanctions by operating ships without a valid national flag. He said the decision sent “a signal that we will take action when we see illegal and sanctioned shadow ships”.  
  
The crucial point - notwithstanding our role in the conflict with Iran - is whether our armed forces have the funding and the capabilities they need to sustain a protracted defensive conflict. The answer, in the words of the Chief of the General Staff, is no, they do not. In January he warned that the UK “is not as ready as we need to be for the kind of full-scale conflict we might face”. The retired General Sir Richard Barrons went further, saying: “Today’s army can frankly do one very small thing; essentially it could seize a small market town on a good day”.  

The delay to the Defence Investment Plan is perhaps the most acute example of where the government has been criticised, with critics arguing it has left British companies powerless to think ahead about the government’s priorities or whether they will receive investment. The Plan, which was due to be published before Christmas, is unlikely to appear until mid-May at the earliest. The Defence Finance and Investment Strategy and the Defence Infrastructure Recapitalisation plan are also awaiting publication.   

On Tuesday, the Defence Select Committee held a session on the impact to the delay to the Defence Investment Plan on Industry. Businesses say they have no clarity about the size of contracts and SMEs say that they have had to exit the sector. One of the attendees went so far as to say it is even more of a feast and famine type environment. The current system means that contracts – even small value – that have to go up to the most senior level for sign-off, impacting investor contracts.   

With the world seemingly to get more dangerous and uncertain by the day, facing up to the reality of the gaps in the UK’s preparedness - and the choices needed to fill those gaps – has never been more urgent.